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Eredivisie

NAC Breda - Ajax

04/25/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
NAC Breda
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Ajax
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
NBAJA

NAC Breda

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.83
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.01
Lewis Holtby on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Ajax

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap)
+0.07
Davy Klaassen not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Sean Steur on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    NAC Breda with Enes Mahmutovic: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Ajax with Kian Fitz-Jim: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Ajax: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    NAC Breda: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

32%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Table position: Ajax holds a significantly higher position (5th place) than NAC Breda (17th place)
  • Current form: Ajax shows better form with 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games compared to NAC Breda (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
  • Tactical strength: Ajax is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.8 goals) and is possession-dominant with an average of 5.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a close match, with low win probabilities for both teams (home win 32%, away win 36%) and a high draw probability (32%)
  • NAC Breda scores an average of only 1.0 home goals per game
  • Ajax is missing several key players due to injuries or suspensions, including O. Zinchenko (Cruciate Ligament Injury) and D. Klaassen (Knee Injury)
Overview

NAC Breda (17th place, 25 points) host Ajax (5th place, 51 points) at the Rat Verlegh Stadion in the Eredivisie. The match will take place on April 25, 2026, 8:00 PM. While NAC Breda is fighting against relegation, Ajax is aiming for a spot in European competitions. The mathematical analysis projects 1.07 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 expected goals for Ajax.

Form

NAC Breda's form over the last five games across all competitions is DLLDD (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their most recent results include a 1-1 away draw against Fortuna Sittard and a 0-0 home draw against Sparta Rotterdam. Ajax has a form of LWDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last five matches. This follows a 3-0 away win against Heracles Almelo and a 1-2 home loss against FC Twente. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

NAC Breda scores an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and concedes 1.7 goals. At home, they score 1.0 goals and concede 1.17 goals per home game. They kept 5 clean sheets. Ajax shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.9 goals per game and 1.23 goals conceded. Away from home, Ajax scores 1.87 goals and concedes 1.6 goals. Ajax has kept 8 clean sheets. At the Rat Verlegh Stadion, an average of 2.6 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches. In 2 of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, there were over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, NAC Breda secured one win, while Ajax won twice. Overall, NAC Breda scored 4 goals and Ajax scored 6 goals in these encounters. The last meeting on September 27, 2025, ended with a 1-2 victory for Ajax, highlighting Ajax's recent dominance.

Key Players

For NAC Breda, Mohamed Nassoh (5 goals, 1 assist) with a stable trend, Moussa Soumano (3 goals) with a rising trend, and Boy Kemper (3 goals, 3 assists) with a stable trend are important offensive players. For Ajax, Mika Godts (15 goals, 10 assists) despite a declining trend, Steven Berghuis (4 goals, 2 assists) with a rising trend, and Wout Weghorst (7 goals, 3 assists) with a stable trend are the standout players.

Goalkeepers

Daniel Bielica of NAC Breda has played in 29 games and recorded 5 clean sheets. His form trend is declining. For Ajax, Maarten Paes made 7 season appearances and kept 2 clean sheets. His form trend is stable.

Influences

NAC Breda's home strength is reflected in an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per home game. The Rat Verlegh Stadion has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 2 of 5 games, both teams scored, and 2 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.

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