🇳🇱

Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles - AZ

04/23/2026, 04:45 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Go Ahead Eagles
1.8
Total xG
3.3
AZ
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
GAEAZ

Go Ahead Eagles

Rising form (3 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

AZ

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.15
Troy Parrott on the bench (15 goals, 3 assists)
Kees Smit on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Go Ahead Eagles with Thibo Baeten: 8.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    AZ with Weslley Patati: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    AZ: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    AZ: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

25%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Offensive Form: Go Ahead Eagles currently score more often (3.0 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), while AZ's goal production is faltering (1.4 goals recently compared to 1.9 goals season average)
  • Defensive Contrast: Go Ahead Eagles shows defensive stability at home (avg. 1.0 goals conceded), while AZ is vulnerable away (avg. 2.4 goals conceded)
  • Mathematical Prediction: The pipeline analysis indicates a 43% probability of a home win for Go Ahead Eagles
Risk Factors
  • Injury Absence: AZ is without Troy Parrott (15 goals, 3 assists) and Kees Smit (3 goals, 3 assists)
  • Away Weakness: AZ concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away game
  • Historical Record: Go Ahead Eagles has not achieved a single victory against AZ in 5 head-to-head matches
Overview

Go Ahead Eagles (11th place, 36 points) host AZ (6th place, 48 points) in the Eredivisie

The match takes place on April 23, 2026, 6:45 PM at De Adelaarshorst

AZ is fighting for a better league position, while Go Ahead Eagles are in mid-table

Form

Go Ahead Eagles show a form of LWLWD in their last five matches

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match was a 0-0 away draw against FC Groningen

Previously, there was a clear 5-0 home win against PEC Zwolle

AZ also has a form of LWLWD over their last five matches

This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

AZ recently drew 2-2 at home against Shakhtar Donetsk

Before that, they achieved a 3-0 home win against SC Heerenveen

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Go Ahead Eagles score an average of 1.67 goals per game and concede 1.5 goals per game this season

AZ averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

Go Ahead Eagles are defensively more stable in home games with an average of 1.65 goals scored and only 1.0 goals conceded

AZ concedes an average of 2.4 goals away from home, but scores 1.8 goals

The last 5 matches at De Adelaarshorst saw an average of 4.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters between Go Ahead Eagles and AZ, Go Ahead Eagles registered 0 wins, AZ claimed 3 wins, and there were 2 draws

AZ has scored a total of 15 goals, while Go Ahead Eagles managed 5 goals

The last match ended in a 2-2 draw on December 7, 2025

AZ has shown dominance in recent head-to-head clashes

Key Players

For Go Ahead Eagles, Mathis Suray is an important offensive player with 11 goals and 2 assists in 28 appearances, including 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Jakob Breum contributed 6 goals and 5 assists in 24 appearances, recently showing rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist

Victor Edvardsen provided 3 goals and 5 assists in 22 appearances, with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games

For AZ, Sven Mijnans is the top scorer with 10 goals and 5 assists in 26 appearances and is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games

Mees de Wit is an important provider with 3 goals and 6 assists in 29 appearances

Isak Jensen was involved in 2 goals and 4 assists in 29 appearances, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Jari De Busser of Go Ahead Eagles kept 8 clean sheets this season

Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ also achieved 8 clean sheets

Influences

Go Ahead Eagles are offensively strong at home with an average of 1.65 goals and defensively stable with 1.0 goals conceded per game

AZ concedes an average of 2.4 goals away from home

De Adelaarshorst is a stadium with a high goal rate, averaging 4.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.