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Eredivisie

PSV - PEC Zwolle

04/23/2026, 07:00 PM

6 : 1
Expected Goals
PSV
2.7
Total xG
3.7
PEC Zwolle
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%

4:0

6%

4:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PSVPZ

PSV

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+1.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Ismael Saibari on the bench (15 goals, 8 assists)
Ivan Perišić on the bench (5 goals, 10 assists)
Dennis Man on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Paul Wanner not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jerdy Schouten not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

PEC Zwolle

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.69
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Younes Namli on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Tristan Gooijer on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    PEC Zwolle with Olivier Aertssen: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    PSV with Yarek Gasiorowski: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    PEC Zwolle: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    PEC Zwolle: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

17%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

27%

No Draw

83%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for PSV with a probability of 73%
  • PSV's strong home offense, averaging 2.76 goals per game, faces PEC Zwolle's vulnerable away defense, which concedes an average of 2.73 goals per game
  • PSV holds a historically dominant record against PEC Zwolle with 4 wins out of 5 direct encounters and a goal difference of 22:4
Risk Factors
  • PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 2.73 goals per away game
  • PSV's recent goal production has slowed, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.6 goals
Overview

PSV host PEC Zwolle at Philips Stadion in an Eredivisie match

The game is scheduled for April 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

PSV are in 1st place in the league table with 74 points

PEC Zwolle are in 13th place with 34 points

Form

PSV's recent form is WLLWW

They recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches

PSV recently secured two consecutive wins

PEC Zwolle's recent form is DDWLD

They achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

PEC Zwolle recently played a draw

Statistics

PSV averages 2.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.33 goals

At home, they average 2.76 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per home game

They kept 2 clean sheets in home matches

PEC Zwolle averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 2.0 goals

Away from home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.73 goals conceded per away game

They kept 1 clean sheet in away matches

The Philips Stadion sees an average of 4.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches at the stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of the last 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, PSV won 4 times and PEC Zwolle won 1 time

PSV scored 22 goals while PEC Zwolle scored 4 goals

PSV won the last encounter 4-0 on October 4, 2025

Key Players

PSV relies on Joey Veerman (8 goals, 14 assists, Avg. 7.97 rating) in midfield

Guus Til (13 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 7.20 rating) is another important midfielder

In attack, Ricardo Pepi (11 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.13 rating) is a key force

For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons (11 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.02 rating) is crucial in attack

Thijs Oosting (6 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.81 rating) is an important midfielder with rising form

Odysseus Velanas (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.85 rating) also shows rising form

Goalkeepers

PSV's goalkeeper is Nick Olij

The home team PSV recorded 7 clean sheets this season

PEC Zwolle's goalkeeper is Tom de Graaff

The away team PEC Zwolle recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Philips Stadion is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.2 goals per match

PSV shows a strong offense at home with Avg. 2.76 goals per game

PEC Zwolle concedes Avg. 2.73 goals per away game

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