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Eredivisie

Excelsior - FC Utrecht

04/26/2026, 10:15 AM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Excelsior
1.1
Total xG
2.7
FC Utrecht
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
EXCFU

Excelsior

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.88
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Ilias Bronkhorst on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1.1 goals/match)

FC Utrecht

Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.06

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht with David Min: 9.1 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Excelsior with Jerolldino Bergraaf: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Excelsior: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

28%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis favors FC Utrecht with a 48% win probability
  • Strong away form: FC Utrecht showed improved form in their last five games with DWWLW
  • Dominance in head-to-head: FC Utrecht won the last direct encounter 4:1 and has a 3:0 goal advantage in H2H
Risk Factors
  • Excelsior conceded an average of 1.5 goals per home game
  • Excelsior recorded 3 losses and 2 draws in their last five home matches
  • Limited data availability for duels in the last 5 games
Overview

Excelsior (16th place, 28 points) hosts FC Utrecht (8th place, 44 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie match on April 26, 2026, 12:15 PM

Excelsior is fighting against relegation, while Utrecht is aiming for a European spot

The mathematical analysis predicts FC Utrecht as the favorite with a 48% probability

A draw is predicted at 28%, and a home win for Excelsior at 24%

Form

Excelsior showed poor form in their last five matches with LLDLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Their last match ended in a draw

FC Utrecht, on the other hand, is in better shape with DWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) from their last five games

Their last result was a win

Utrecht demonstrates a rising form curve, while Excelsior is in a downward spiral

Statistics

Excelsior scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.7 goals per game this season

In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

The team kept 5 clean sheets this season

FC Utrecht scores an average of 1.63 goals per game and concedes 1.2 goals per game

Away from home, Utrecht scores an average of 1.69 goals and concedes 1.77 goals

The team recorded 7 clean sheets

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at this venue, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Excelsior consistently scores (~1.0 goals per game)

FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.6)

Head-to-Head

In 3 direct encounters, Excelsior has not secured a single win, while FC Utrecht won once and there were two draws

The goal difference in these matches is 4:7 in favor of FC Utrecht

The last meeting on August 24, 2025, ended with a 4:1 away victory for FC Utrecht

FC Utrecht has recently been dominant in head-to-head comparisons

Key Players

Excelsior's key midfielders include Noah Naujoks (8 goals, 1 assist, stable form)

Attacker Derensili Sanches Fernandes is an important factor with 3 goals and 2 assists and rising form

Irakli Yegoian contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season, but his form is declining

For FC Utrecht, midfielder Gjivai ZechiĆŖl is crucial with 8 goals and 4 assists and stable form

Defender Souffian El Karouani stands out with 10 assists, although his form is declining

Forward Artem Stepanov scored 4 goals and 1 assist this season, and in the last 5 games, he scored 3 goals with stable form

Goalkeepers

Stijn van Gassel is in goal for Excelsior, with a season average rating of 7.18 and 5 clean sheets

For FC Utrecht, Vasilios Barkas is the goalkeeper, with a season average rating of 7.05 and 7 clean sheets

Vasilios Barkas shows a rising form trend

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Excelsior has a record of 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses (11:17 goals) on artificial turf

FC Utrecht has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses (8:6 goals) on artificial turf

Excelsior scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.5 goals

FC Utrecht scores an average of 1.69 goals away and concedes 1.77 goals

The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion has averaged 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 out of 5 games

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