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Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle - Heracles Almelo

05/03/2026, 12:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
PEC Zwolle
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Heracles Almelo
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PZHA

PEC Zwolle

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.39
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Younes Namli not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

Heracles Almelo

Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+1.26
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.22
Ajdin Hrustic not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Ivan Mesik not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Heracles Almelo with Mimeirhel Benita: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    PEC Zwolle with Olivier Aertssen: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    PEC Zwolle: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    PEC Zwolle: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

25%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • PEC Zwolle's home strength with an average of 1.33 home goals and 1.27 home goals conceded
  • Heracles Almelo shows an extremely weak away defense with 4.09 goals conceded per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for PEC Zwolle with 47% probability and 1.84 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Heracles Almelo averaged 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 matches
  • Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.09 goals per away game
  • PEC Zwolle has 7 injured or suspended players in the squad
Overview

PEC Zwolle (14th place, 34 points) host Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) at MACĀ³PARK Stadion. Eredivisie match on May 3, 2026, 2:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower part of the table and are fighting for important points to avoid relegation

Form

PEC Zwolle's form in the last five matches is DWLDL

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss

Heracles Almelo shows a significantly weaker form of LDLLL

This is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Heracles has a streak of 3 consecutive losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

PEC Zwolle scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 2.13 goals per game this season

Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes 2.55 goals per game

In home games, PEC Zwolle scores 1.33 goals and concedes 1.27 goals

Heracles Almelo concedes a high number of goals away, with an average of 4.09 goals conceded per away game

Both teams scored in 22 PEC Zwolle games and 16 Heracles Almelo games

20 PEC Zwolle games and 22 Heracles Almelo games ended with over 2.5 goals

At MACĀ³PARK Stadion, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at MACĀ³PARK Stadion

Head-to-Head

There were no draws in the last 5 direct encounters

Heracles Almelo won 3 of these matches, PEC Zwolle 2

The goal difference in these games is 11:15 in favor of Heracles Almelo

The last match on November 2, 2025, ended with an 8:2 victory for Heracles Almelo

Key Players

For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons (11 goals, 6 assists) and Thijs Oosting (6 goals, 2 assists) are crucial

Odysseus Velanas (2 goals, 1 assist) shows a rising form and scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

PEC Zwolle will be without Younes Namli (2G/4A) as he was not nominated

For Heracles Almelo, Luka Kulenovic (5 goals, 3 assists) and Mario Engels (1 goal, 2 assists) stand out

Sem Scheperman (1 goal, 1 assist) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Heracles Almelo will play without Ajdin Hrustic (1G/6A), Ivan Mesik (2G/0A), and Lequincio Zeefuik (2G/0A) as they were not nominated

Goalkeepers

Tom de Graaff, goalkeeper for PEC Zwolle, has an average rating of 6.89 this season

PEC Zwolle recorded 5 clean sheets

Timo Jansink, goalkeeper for Heracles Almelo, has an average rating of 6.75 this season

Heracles Almelo achieved 2 clean sheets

Timo Jansink did not play in the last 5 games

Influences

MACĀ³PARK Stadion, a venue with artificial turf, sees an average of 2.4 goals per game

PEC Zwolle has a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses (16:11 goals) on artificial turf

Heracles Almelo has a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses (4:18 goals) on artificial turf

PEC Zwolle scores an average of 1.33 goals at home and concedes 1.27 goals

Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.09 goals per away game

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