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Eredivisie

AZ - FC Twente

05/03/2026, 02:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
AZ
1.7
Total xG
3.3
FC Twente
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AZFT

AZ

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.44
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.07
Mexx Meerdink on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Weslley Patati on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

FC Twente

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.23
Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.12
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente with Daouda Weidmann: 10.4 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    AZ with Alexandre Penetra: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    AZ: 40% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 15)

  • 4
    AZ: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Twente: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

26%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis slightly favors AZ with a home win probability of 42%
  • AZ has a historically strong record against FC Twente at the AFAS Stadion and recently showed stable form
  • FC Twente's goal production has been stalling in recent games, while AZ consistently scores
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of both teams scoring, at 66%
  • A value of 63% for over 2.5 goals indicates a potentially high-scoring match
  • FC Twente shows a negative trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
Overview

AZ (6th place, 49 points) hosts FC Twente (5th place, 54 points) at the AFAS Stadion

Eredivisie match on May 3, 2026, 4:45 PM

This is a clash between two top-half teams, with AZ aiming to close the gap to European qualification spots

Form

AZ's form in the last 5 games is WLWDD

This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last two matches ended in a draw

FC Twente's form in their last 5 matches is LWWWD

They secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Twente's last game also ended in a draw

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

AZ averaged 1.68 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per game this season

At home, AZ averages 1.70 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

FC Twente also scored 1.68 goals per game while conceding only 1.06 goals

Away from home, Twente's goal average is 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

AZ's home games have seen an average of 3.2 total goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 home matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 home matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, AZ secured 4 home wins and FC Twente achieved 1 away win

AZ scored a total of 9 goals, while FC Twente netted 6 goals

The last meeting on November 30, 2025, saw FC Twente win away with a 1-0 score

AZ has generally been the more dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

AZ relies on Troy Parrott, who contributed 15 goals and 3 assists this season and recently scored 1 goal in 2/5 games

Midfielder Sven Mijnans has scored 10 goals and 5 assists, showing rising form with 3 goals in 3/5 recent games

Defender Mees de Wit has 3 goals and 6 assists this season

For FC Twente, Kristian Hlynsson with 9 goals and 3 assists, and a recently declining form, is important

Daan Rots contributed 8 goals and 4 assists, while Sam Lammers has 5 goals and 7 assists, recently providing 5 assists in 5 games

Goalkeepers

AZ's goalkeeper is Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro with 20 season appearances

AZ has kept 9 clean sheets this season

For FC Twente, Lars Unnerstall is in goal, making 30 season appearances

FC Twente recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

The AFAS Stadion saw an average of 3.2 total goals per game in AZ's last 5 home matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of these 5 games

AZ demonstrates solid home performance with an average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded at home

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