Eredivisie
FC Groningen - Excelsior
05/02/2026, 04:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.3
1.5
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
FC Groningen
Excelsior
League
The Lab
- 1FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2FC Groningen with Wouter Prins: 7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Excelsior with Emil Hansson: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Excelsior: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Excelsior: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
26%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: FC Groningen has a home win probability of 43% and is expected to score 1.78 goals
- Form advantage: FC Groningen has more stable form (2W, 2D, 1L) than Excelsior (1W, 2D, 2L) in the last five games
- Offensive strength: FC Groningen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target, Excelsior 4.8
Risk Factors
- Excelsior concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- S. Resink (Cruciate Ligament Injury) is missing for FC Groningen, with only 79% of seasonal goal threat available
Overview
FC Groningen (9th place, 42 points) host Excelsior (14th place, 31 points) at the Euroborg
Eredivisie match on May 2, 2026, 6:45 PM
FC Groningen is in the mid-table, while Excelsior is in a relegation battle and needs points for survival
Form
Home team FC Groningen shows a form of DWWDL
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their last game ended in a 1-3 loss against Feyenoord
Excelsior has a form of LDLDW
This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
In their last match, they celebrated a 5-0 victory against FC Utrecht
Statistics
FC Groningen scores an average of 1.39 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals
At home, they score 1.35 goals and concede only 0.82 goals per home game
Excelsior scores an average of 1.16 goals and concedes 1.65 goals per game
Away from home, Excelsior concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game
FC Groningen is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
Excelsior is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)
The Euroborg sees an average of 2.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 1 direct encounter, FC Groningen secured 1 victory
Excelsior has not won any of the matches, and there have been no draws
The goal difference is 2:0 in favor of FC Groningen
The last meeting on December 5, 2025, ended with a 0-2 away win for FC Groningen against Excelsior
Key Players
For FC Groningen, Thom van Bergen is a key offensive player with 9 goals and 4 assists, and a performance of 3 goals and 1 assist in the last five games
Younes Taha contributes 4 goals and 7 assists
Dies Janse, a defender, recently showed rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
For Excelsior, Derensili Sanches Fernandes stands out with 5 season goals and 3 assists, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games
Noah Naujoks has 9 goals and 1 assist this season
Irakli Yegoian contributed 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Etienne Vaessen, the goalkeeper for FC Groningen, played 26 games with an average rating of 6.85
He showed a slightly declining form in the last 5 games
FC Groningen has achieved 10 clean sheets this season
Stijn van Gassel of Excelsior was in goal for 29 games with an average rating of 7.17
He shows stable form and improved in the last 5 games
Excelsior achieved 6 clean sheets
Influences
FC Groningen has a strong defense at home, conceding an average of 0.82 goals
The home strength of FC Groningen is reflected in 1.35 goals scored per home game
The grass pitch at Euroborg provides a traditional playing surface
The Euroborg venue records an average of 2.6 total goals per game, with over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches