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Eredivisie

FC Volendam - SC Heerenveen

05/03/2026, 10:15 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Volendam
1.5
Total xG
3.4
SC Heerenveen
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FVSH

FC Volendam

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Brandley Kuwas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Robin van Cruijsen on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Gibson Yah on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Joel Ideho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

SC Heerenveen

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Maxence Rivera not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Lasse Nordås on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Heerenveen: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Volendam: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    SC Heerenveen with Luca Oyen: 8.1 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Volendam with Brandley Kuwas: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Robert Mühren: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

25%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • SC Heerenveen's strong offense: The model predicts 1.86 goals for Heerenveen, who are currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals per game) than their season average (1.8) and average 6.8 shots on target
  • FC Volendam's home defense: Volendam shows a solid home defense, conceding an average of only 0.86 goals per home game
  • Heerenveen's defensive weakness away: SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Heerenveen's defensive vulnerability away: SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Volendam's overall lower scoring output: FC Volendam averages only 1.06 goals scored per game this season
  • Limited data availability for duels in the last 5 games
Overview

FC Volendam (16th place, 31 points) host SC Heerenveen (8th place, 47 points) at the Kras Stadion. This Eredivisie match takes place on May 3, 2026, 12:15 PM. Volendam is in a relegation battle, while Heerenveen aims for a higher mid-table finish

Form

FC Volendam's last five games show a form of LLDLW, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last result was a win

SC Heerenveen is in better form over their last five matches with WDWLW, recording 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Heerenveen also won their last game

Statistics

FC Volendam averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.61 goals

SC Heerenveen is stronger offensively with an average of 1.77 goals per game and concedes 1.65 goals

Volendam failed to score in 11 games, Heerenveen in only 6 games

The Kras Stadion has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 recent matches (80% BTTS), and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals (60% Over 2.5)

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, FC Volendam has 1 win, SC Heerenveen has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw

FC Volendam scored a total of 3 goals, while SC Heerenveen scored 6 goals

The last encounter on August 9, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Recent head-to-head results indicate an even balance

Key Players

For FC Volendam, Henk Veerman (4 goals, 2 assists), Anthony Descotte (3 goals, 1 assist), and Nordin Bukala (2 goals, 1 assist) are key offensive players

For SC Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow (12 goals, 4 assists), Joris van Overeem (2 goals, 9 assists), and Ringo Meerveld (6 goals, 3 assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

Kayne van Oevelen of FC Volendam recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Bernt Klaverboer of SC Heerenveen also kept 3 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers have similar clean sheet records

Influences

The match takes place at the Kras Stadion on artificial turf

FC Volendam's record on artificial turf is 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with 13:11 goals

SC Heerenveen's record on artificial turf is 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 12:5 goals

Volendam's home defense is relatively stable, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per home game

Heerenveen shows a strong away offense with an average of 1.83 goals per away game

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