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Eredivisie

Ajax - PSV

05/02/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Ajax
1.4
Total xG
3.1
PSV
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AJAPSV

Ajax

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
Wout Weghorst on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Sean Steur on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

PSV

Attack strength (1.67x league average)
+0.40
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.08
Ismael Saibari not in squad (15 goals, 8 assists)
Ivan PeriÅ”ić not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists)
Dennis Man on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Jerdy Schouten not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Ajax: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Ajax: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Ajax with Takehiro Tomiyasu: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    PSV with Yarek Gasiorowski: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • PSV's Offensive Power: As Eredivisie leaders, PSV has scored 90 goals, averaging 2.9 goals per game, with 3.0 goals per game recently
  • Mathematical Analysis Forecast: The model predicts an away win for PSV with a 43% probability, compared to 31% for an Ajax home win
  • High Goal Potential: Both teams show positive attacking form, and venue statistics indicate a high-scoring game with an average of 3.4 goals, 80% BTTS, and 80% Over 2.5
Risk Factors
  • PSV's Mixed Head-to-Head Record: Despite their strong league position, PSV has a mixed record against Ajax in recent direct duels, with Ajax indicated as "home" dominant in the H2H summary
  • Ajax's Solid Home Defense: Ajax concedes an average of only 0.87 goals per home game this season, which could challenge PSV's potent attack
  • PSV's Recent Form Vulnerability: PSV's current form includes two losses in their last five matches, indicating some vulnerability
Overview

Ajax (4th place, 54 points) host current Eredivisie leader PSV (1st place, 77 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena

The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:00 PM

Ajax is fighting for European spots, while PSV leads the league

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for PSV with a 43% probability, while a home win for Ajax is at 31%

Form

Ajax's form in their last five league matches is WDLWW

This equates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Ajax won their last two games consecutively

PSV's form in their last five league matches is LLWWW

PSV achieved 3 wins and suffered 2 losses

PSV won their last three games consecutively

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Ajax scores an average of 1.9 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals per match

At home, Ajax averages 1.93 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded

Ajax kept 9 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 21 matches

PSV scores an average of 2.9 goals per game and concedes 1.32 goals per match

Away from home, PSV averages 2.85 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded

PSV kept 7 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 23 matches

Ajax is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.8)

PSV is currently scoring more frequently (3.0) than their season average (2.7)

The Johan Cruijff Arena saw an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for PSV, 1 win for Ajax, and 2 draws

The goal difference in these encounters is balanced at 10:10

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on September 21, 2025

The direct head-to-head record is summarized as "home" dominant

Key Players

Mika Godts (Attacker) is Ajax's most dangerous player with 16 goals and 11 assists, his form is stable

Steven Berghuis (Attacker) contributed 4 goals and 2 assists, scoring 3 goals in the last 5 games and showing rising form

Kasper Dolberg (Attacker) chipped in with 3 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable

Wout Weghorst (7 goals, 4 assists) and Sean Steur (1 goal, 1 assist) are not in the lineup, reducing Ajax's usual starting XI goal threat by 12%

Joey Veerman (Midfielder) is a crucial player for PSV with 8 goals and 14 assists, his form is declining

Guus Til (Midfielder) scored 13 goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 4 games, his form is stable

Ricardo Pepi (Attacker) is a key player with 13 goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 4 games, showing rising form

Although Ismael Saibari (15 goals, 8 assists), Ivan PeriÅ”ić (5 goals, 10 assists), Dennis Man (6 goals, 6 assists), and Jerdy Schouten (1 goal, 2 assists) are not in the lineup, PSV's usual starting XI goal threat remains at 100%

Goalkeepers

Ajax's goalkeeper, Maarten Paes, achieved 9 clean sheets this season

PSV's goalkeeper, Matej Kovar, has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Johan Cruijff Arena has seen an average of 3.4 total goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the matches

Ajax scores an average of 1.93 goals at home and concedes only 0.87 goals

PSV is strong offensively away from home with an average of 2.85 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded per game

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