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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - NAC Breda

05/02/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
1.5
Total xG
2.4
NAC Breda
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FUNB

FC Utrecht

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Matisse Didden not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

NAC Breda

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.59
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Charles-Andreas Brym on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Raul Paula on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    NAC Breda with Juho Talvitie: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Utrecht with Siebe Horemans: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    NAC Breda: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • FC Utrecht's strong home performance (1.59 goals scored, 0.76 goals conceded) meets NAC Breda's weak away defense (2.5 goals conceded per away game)
  • FC Utrecht shows a positive offensive trend (currently 2.2 goals, season average 1.6), while NAC Breda's goal production is stagnant (currently 0.5 goals, season average 1.0)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 49% for FC Utrecht with 1.47 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • NAC Breda concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • FC Utrecht's recent 0-5 away defeat against Excelsior indicates a defensive vulnerability
Overview

FC Utrecht (8th place, 44 points) host NAC Breda (17th place, 25 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard. The Eredivisie match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:30 PM. Utrecht aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Breda fights against relegation.

Form

FC Utrecht's form across all competitions is WWLWL, which corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses. Most recently, they suffered a 0-5 away loss against Excelsior, preceded by a 4-1 home win against Telstar. NAC Breda's form across all competitions is LLDDL, with 2 draws and 3 losses. Their last match was a 0-2 home loss against Ajax, following a 1-1 away draw against Fortuna Sittard. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

FC Utrecht averages 1.58 goals scored per game and concedes 1.32 goals this season. At home, they score 1.59 goals and concede only 0.76 goals per home game. Overall, Utrecht has secured 7 clean sheets. NAC Breda averages 0.97 goals scored per game and concedes 1.71 goals. Away, their average is 1.0 goals scored and a high 2.5 goals conceded per away game. Breda achieved 5 clean sheets. At Stadion Galgenwaard, the last 5 games have seen an average of 2.4 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5 games. FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.6). NAC Breda's goal production is stagnant (0.5), with a season average of 1.0.

Head-to-Head

In the 3 direct encounters between FC Utrecht and NAC Breda, FC Utrecht has 2 wins, NAC Breda has 0 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference is 4:2 in favor of FC Utrecht. The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on December 14, 2025. FC Utrecht has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches.

Key Players

For FC Utrecht, Gjivai Zechiƫl (Midfielder) with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, Yoann Cathline (Attacker) with 0 goals and 2 assists and a rising form, and Dani de Wit (Midfielder) with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games are key players. For NAC Breda, Mohamed Nassoh (Midfielder) stands out with 2 goals in the last 5 games and rising form, followed by Clint Leemans (Midfielder) and AndrƩ Ayew (Attacker), both showing stable form.

Goalkeepers

FC Utrecht's goalkeeper, Vasilios Barkas, has recorded 7 clean sheets this season and shows a rising form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.23. Daniel Bielica, NAC Breda's goalkeeper, achieved 5 clean sheets this season, but his form has been declining recently, with an average rating of 6.47 in the last 5 games.

Influences

Stadion Galgenwaard has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. FC Utrecht demonstrates a strong offense at home, averaging 1.59 goals scored, and a solid defense, conceding only 0.76 goals. NAC Breda, however, concedes an average of 2.5 goals in away games, suggesting a clear home advantage for Utrecht. No weather data is available.

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