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Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen - Telstar

05/02/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
NEC Nijmegen
2.5
Total xG
3.7
Telstar
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
NNTEL

NEC Nijmegen

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap)
+0.15
Başar Önal not in squad (7 goals, 6 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Telstar

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.41
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Telstar with Devon Koswal: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Telstar: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen with Youssef El Kachati: 7.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

20%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • NEC Nijmegen is the favorite for a home win with 64% according to mathematical analysis
  • NEC Nijmegen (3rd place) significantly outperforms Telstar (16th place) in the league standings
  • NEC Nijmegen's home offense (2.38 goals/game) faces Telstar's vulnerable away defense (2.27 goals conceded/game)
Risk Factors
  • NEC Nijmegen's goal production is currently stagnating (1.8 goals), while the season average is 2.4 goals
  • Telstar shows a positive form trend in recent matches, currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.4)
Overview

NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 55 points) hosts Telstar (16th place, 30 points) at Goffertstadion

Eredivisie match on May 2, 2026, 9:00 PM

NEC is fighting for a top position in the league

Telstar is in the relegation zone and needs points

Form

NEC Nijmegen shows good form with WDWDD

The team achieved 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games

Telstar's current form is LWLLW

They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

NEC Nijmegen scores an average of 2.38 goals per home game

The home team concedes an average of 1.44 goals

Telstar scores an average of 1.36 goals per away game

Telstar concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away match

At Goffertstadion, an average of 3.6 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at Goffertstadion

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games at Goffertstadion

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between NEC Nijmegen and Telstar so far

The only encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on December 13, 2025

The historical balance is even

Key Players

For NEC Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen is a key attacker with 11 goals and 7 assists, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games

Tjaronn Chery is a central figure in midfield with 9 goals and 6 assists, scoring 2 times in the last 5 games

Sami Ouaissa provided 6 goals and 5 assists this season, assisting 3 goals in the last 5 games and his form is rising

For Telstar, Sem van Duijn is a key attacking player with 4 goals and 2 assists, scoring 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and his form is rising

Patrick Brouwer contributed 7 goals and 5 assists, scoring 1 goal and assisting 2 goals in the last 5 games

Jeff Hardeveld recorded 5 goals and 6 assists, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

NEC Nijmegen's goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz had 5 clean sheets in 28 appearances

Telstar's goalkeeper Ronald Koeman Jr. achieved 4 clean sheets in 30 appearances

Influences

NEC Nijmegen has a home advantage with an average of 2.38 home goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded

Telstar is vulnerable away with 2.27 goals conceded per game

The playing surface is grass

Matches at Goffertstadion tend to be high-scoring with 3.6 goals per game

Both teams score in 80% of games at Goffertstadion

Over 2.5 goals are scored in 80% of games at Goffertstadion

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