Bundesliga
St. Pauli - Hamburger SV
01/23/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
29%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
30%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- HSV's catastrophic away defense: Conceding 4.5 goals per away game, HSV faces a home team desperate for points
- Derby character and relegation battle: The high tension of the city derby between 18th and 14th place promises an intense match
- St. Pauli's historical dominance: The recent H2H record (2W-1D-0L) gives St. Pauli a psychological advantage
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent form of both teams: Both teams have identical records in their last 5 games (1W-2D-2L), making them unpredictable
- Key absences: The absence of key players like St. Pauli's top scorer A. Hountondji could impact the offensive power of both teams
Overview
St. Pauli (18th place, 12 points) host Hamburger SV (14th place, 17 points) at the Millerntor-Stadion
This is a heated city derby and a direct duel in the Bundesliga relegation battle
The match takes place on January 23, 2026, at 8:30 PM
Form
St. Pauli: DWDLL - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games
Hamburger SV: WLDLD - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games
Both teams show inconsistent form, with St. Pauli having lost their last two consecutive games (L2)
Statistics
Both offensive lines are similarly weak, with 0.94 goals per game (St. Pauli) and 1.0 goals per game (HSV)
St. Pauli concedes an average of 1.88 goals at home
HSV's away defense is extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
Goals have been frequent in both teams' matches; for St. Pauli, 10 out of 17 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
St. Pauli is undefeated in 3 direct encounters
The record is 2 wins for St. Pauli and 1 draw
The goal difference is 4:1 in favor of St. Pauli
The last meeting was won by St. Pauli 2:0
Key Players
For St. Pauli, Andrèas Hountondji has scored 4 goals this season, while Eric Smith has been directly involved in 4 goals (2 goals, 2 assists)
At Hamburger SV, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Rayan Philippe are the top scorers with 4 goals each
Defender Luka Vuskovic has already scored 3 goals this season
Fábio Vieira is a key creator with 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Nikola Vasilj of St. Pauli has kept 2 clean sheets in 17 appearances
Daniel Heuer Fernandes of Hamburger SV has 4 clean sheets in 17 matches
Influences
The home advantage for St. Pauli is statistically minor, with only one win in 10 matches on natural grass
Hamburger SV's extreme away weakness (average of 4.5 goals conceded) is a decisive factor
At Millerntor-Stadion, there is an average of 2.8 goals per game, and 80% of matches have ended with over 2.5 goals