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Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam - Go Ahead Eagles

05/03/2026, 02:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Sparta Rotterdam
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Go Ahead Eagles
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SRGAE

Sparta Rotterdam

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

Go Ahead Eagles

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.73
Rising form (3.7 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.63
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.19
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Go Ahead Eagles with Evert Linthorst: 15.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sparta Rotterdam: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Go Ahead Eagles: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Sparta Rotterdam with Pelle Clement: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam is favored with a 54% home win probability, with 1.66 expected goals compared to 0.88 for Go Ahead Eagles
  • Go Ahead Eagles' Form Strength: Go Ahead Eagles shows a positive form trend, with an average of 3.7 goals scored per game recently and only 0.67 goals conceded per game, representing an improvement over their season average
  • Go Ahead Eagles' Tactical Offense: Go Ahead Eagles has averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating offensive strength
Risk Factors
  • Sparta Rotterdam's Negative Form Trend: Sparta Rotterdam shows a negative form trend, with a decreased goal production of 0.8 goals per game recently and increased goals conceded of 2.5 per game
  • Go Ahead Eagles' Away Defense: Go Ahead Eagles concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game, indicating a defensive vulnerability
Overview

Sparta Rotterdam (10th place, 42 points) host Go Ahead Eagles (11th place, 37 points) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Eredivisie match on May 3, 2026, 4:45 PM

This is a mid-table clash with implications for league standings

Form

Sparta Rotterdam's form in the last 5 matches is LWDLL

This represents a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The team suffered two consecutive losses recently

Go Ahead Eagles' form in the last 5 matches is WLWDD

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

They had two consecutive draws recently

Sparta Rotterdam's recent goal production has slowed to an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.2 goals

Go Ahead Eagles is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 3.7 goals per game than their season average of 1.6 goals

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Sparta Rotterdam scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.71 goals

At home, these values are 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Go Ahead Eagles scores an average of 1.61 goals per game and concedes 1.45 goals

Away from home, they score 1.55 goals and concede 2.27 goals

At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, an average of 2.0 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches

At this stadium, 2 out of 5 matches ended with both teams scoring

No match in the last 5 there had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Go Ahead Eagles won three times, Sparta Rotterdam once, and there was one draw

The goal difference in these matches is 5:4 in favor of Go Ahead Eagles

Sparta Rotterdam won the last head-to-head away match 3:0 on August 23, 2025

Key Players

Key players for Sparta Rotterdam include Tobias Lauritsen (11 goals, 3 assists), Shunsuke Mito (6 goals, 3 assists), and Joshua Kitolano (5 goals, 2 assists)

For Go Ahead Eagles, Mathis Suray (11 goals, 2 assists), Jakob Breum (6 goals, 5 assists), and Victor Edvardsen (3 goals, 5 assists) are notable

Goalkeepers

Sparta Rotterdam's goalkeeper, Joël Drommel, kept 11 clean sheets this season

Jari De Busser of Go Ahead Eagles recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel on artificial turf

Sparta Rotterdam has a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with 11:11 goals in 10 games on artificial turf

Go Ahead Eagles achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with 8:9 goals in 5 games on artificial turf

Sparta Rotterdam's home record shows an average of 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Go Ahead Eagles' away record shows an average of 1.55 goals scored and 2.27 goals conceded

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