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Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles - PSV

05/10/2026, 02:45 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Go Ahead Eagles
1.3
Total xG
3.3
PSV
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
GAEPSV

Go Ahead Eagles

Rising form (2.3 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

PSV

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.77
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.09
Ismael Saibari not in squad (15 goals, 8 assists)
Joey Veerman on the bench (8 goals, 14 assists)
Mauro Júnior not in squad (1 goals, 9 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Go Ahead Eagles with Thibo Baeten: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    PSV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    PSV with Yarek Gasiorowski: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Go Ahead Eagles: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Go Ahead Eagles: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

24%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • PSV's mathematically predicted favorite role with 55% win probability and 2.05 expected goals
  • The offensive strength of PSV with an average of 2.88 goals per season, increasing to 3.0 goals in recent form
  • Go Ahead Eagles' home strength, where they score an average of 1.65 goals and concede only 1.0 goal per game
Risk Factors
  • PSV shows increased defensive vulnerability in recent form, with an average of 1.8 goals conceded compared to the season average of 1.34
  • Go Ahead Eagles won the last direct encounter against PSV on October 18, 2025, with a score of 2:1
  • The match could be high-scoring, as mathematical analysis predicts a 63% probability for both teams to score and a 64% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Go Ahead Eagles (11th place, 38 points) host PSV (1st place, 78 points) at De Adelaarshorst

Eredivisie match on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM

League leaders PSV travel to consolidate their championship ambitions, while Go Ahead Eagles aim to maintain their mid-table position

Form

Go Ahead Eagles have shown the form 'LWDDD' in their last five matches

This means 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

The team currently has a streak of 3 draws

PSV's form in the last five games is 'LWWWD'

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last game also ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Go Ahead Eagles score an average of 1.63 goals and concede 1.47 goals per season

At home, they average 1.65 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

PSV is offensively strong with 2.88 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.34 goals

Away, PSV scores 2.79 times and concedes 1.29 goals per game

De Adelaarshorst stadium has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 20% of the games, and 80% of the games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, PSV recorded 4 wins and Go Ahead Eagles 1 win

PSV scored a total of 11 goals, while Go Ahead Eagles scored 4 goals

The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended 1:2 in favor of Go Ahead Eagles

Key Players

For Go Ahead Eagles, Mathis Suray with 11 season goals and 2 assists, Jakob Breum with 6 season goals and 5 assists, and Victor Edvardsen with 4 season goals and 6 assists are key players

For PSV, Ricardo Pepi with 14 season goals and 1 assist, Guus Til with 13 season goals and 5 assists, and Ivan Perišić with 5 season goals and 10 assists are significant

Goalkeepers

Jari De Busser of Go Ahead Eagles recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Matej Kovar of PSV kept a clean sheet in 7 games

Influences

Go Ahead Eagles show a solid defense at home, conceding an average of only 1.0 goals per game

De Adelaarshorst stadium is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

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