🇳🇱

Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard - PEC Zwolle

05/10/2026, 02:45 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Fortuna Sittard
1.9
Total xG
3.1
PEC Zwolle
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FSPZ

Fortuna Sittard

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Philip Brittijn not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 79% available)

PEC Zwolle

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.75
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Younes Namli not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Sherel Floranus not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Ryan Thomas not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fortuna Sittard with Mohamed Ihattaren: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Fortuna Sittard: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    PEC Zwolle: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

25%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a moderate favoritism for a home win with 51%
  • Home offense vs. away defense: Fortuna Sittard's average of 1.47 home goals meets a very vulnerable PEC Zwolle away defense, which concedes 2.94 goals per away game
  • Stadium characteristics: The Fortuna Sittard Stadion favors high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 total goals per match and a 100% BTTS rate in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard's negative form: The home team shows a negative form trend (advancedStats.home.recentFormTrend)
  • Head-to-head record: The historical head-to-head (5 matches) strongly favors PEC Zwolle with 4 wins to 1
  • Low shots on target: PEC Zwolle averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Fortuna Sittard (13th place, 36 points) host PEC Zwolle (12th place, 37 points) at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion. The Eredivisie match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM. Both teams are in the lower midfield of the table, separated by only one point.

Form

Fortuna Sittard shows poor current form with LLDLL, which translates to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games. Their last result was a loss.

PEC Zwolle displays mixed form, indicated by WLDLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. They won their last game.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fortuna Sittard averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.84 goals conceded per game this season. In home games, the average is 1.47 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded. Overall, both teams scored in 25 matches, and 22 matches had over 2.5 goals.

PEC Zwolle averaged 1.31 goals scored and 2.06 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they scored an average of 1.31 goals but conceded an alarming 2.94 goals. Both teams scored in 22 matches, and 20 matches had over 2.5 goals.

The Fortuna Sittard Stadion has seen an average of 3.2 total goals in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in all 5 of these matches, and 4 out of 5 had over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Sittard has 1 win and PEC Zwolle has 4 wins. Fortuna Sittard scored 5 goals, while PEC Zwolle scored 11 goals. The last encounter on December 13, 2025, saw PEC Zwolle win 1-0 away. The away team has been dominant in recent meetings.

Key Players

For Fortuna Sittard, key players include Kaj Sierhuis with 11 season goals (1 goal in the last 5 games), Dimitrios Limnios with 2 goals and 6 assists (1 goal, 2 assists in the last 5 games), and Kristoffer Peterson with 3 goals and 2 assists (1 goal in the last 5 games).

For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons stands out with 11 season goals and 6 assists, Kaj de Rooij with 6 goals and 6 assists, and Thijs Oosting with 6 goals and 2 assists (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games).

Goalkeepers

Fortuna Sittard is expected to start with Mattijs Branderhorst in goal, who has 3 clean sheets this season. For PEC Zwolle, Tom de Graaff will be in goal, having achieved 6 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Fortuna Sittard averaged 1.47 home goals scored and 1.59 home goals conceded. The Fortuna Sittard Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 total goals per match. In 100% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 80%. The playing surface is grass.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.