Eredivisie
Ajax - FC Utrecht
05/10/2026, 02:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Ajax
FC Utrecht
League
The Lab
- 1FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Ajax with Anton Gaaei: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3FC Utrecht with Siebe Horemans: 7 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Ajax: 74% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5FC Utrecht: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
28%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ajax with 40% probability
- Ajax demonstrates a strong home performance with an average of 1.94 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded per game
- FC Utrecht currently shows an improved offense, scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals)
Risk Factors
- FC Utrecht concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- The historical head-to-head record favors the away team, with FC Utrecht winning 3 out of the last 5 direct encounters
- Ajax averaged 4.0 shots on target in the last 5 games, while FC Utrecht averaged 8.0 shots on target
Overview
Ajax (4th place, 55 points) host FC Utrecht (8th place, 47 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena
Eredivisie match on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM
Ajax is fighting for a spot in European competition, while FC Utrecht aims to consolidate its mid-table position
Form
Ajax's form across all competitions: DLWWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Ajax's last two games were a draw and a win
FC Utrecht's form across all competitions: WLWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
FC Utrecht's last two games were a win and a loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Ajax averages 1.94 home goals scored and concedes 0.94 goals per home game
FC Utrecht averages 1.57 away goals scored and concedes 2.0 goals per away game
Ajax kept 6 clean sheets at home, Utrecht 3 away
The Johan Cruijff Arena sees an average of 3.2 goals per game
In 80% of matches at the stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were registered
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 1 time, FC Utrecht won 3 times, and there was 1 draw
Ajax scored 8 goals, FC Utrecht scored 12 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on November 9, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht has proven to be the more dominant team in recent encounters
Key Players
Ajax's offense is led by Mika Godts (17 goals, 12 assists, rating 7.63), who recently delivered 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 games
Oscar Gloukh (6 goals, 6 assists, rating 6.94) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 appearances
Steven Berghuis (4 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.35) scored 2 goals in his last 5 games
For FC Utrecht, Gjivai Zechiƫl (8 goals, 4 assists, rating 7.10) and Dani de Wit (6 goals, 3 assists, rating 6.98) are in rising form with 3 and 2 goals respectively in their last 5 games
Souffian El Karouani (2 goals, 10 assists, rating 7.43) is an important assist provider, but recently showed a slightly declining form
Goalkeepers
Ajax's goalkeeper Maarten Paes kept 9 clean sheets this season
FC Utrecht's goalkeeper Vasilios Barkas recorded 8 clean sheets
Influences
The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for many goals with an average of 3.2 goals per game
80% of matches at this stadium saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals
Ajax shows strong home performance with an average of 1.94 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded
FC Utrecht is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game