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Eredivisie

FC Groningen - NEC Nijmegen

05/10/2026, 02:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Groningen
1.4
Total xG
3.0
NEC Nijmegen
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FGNN

FC Groningen

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
S. Resink not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

NEC Nijmegen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.27
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Başar Önal on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    FC Groningen with Tyrique Mercera: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen with Ahmetcan Kaplan: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Groningen: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • NEC Nijmegen is significantly higher in the league table at 3rd place with 56 points compared to FC Groningen's 10th place
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 44% probability for an NEC Nijmegen away win
  • NEC Nijmegen has been dominant in recent head-to-head encounters with 2 wins out of 3 matches
Risk Factors
  • NEC Nijmegen's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), while the season average is 2.3
  • NEC Nijmegen drew 4 of their last 5 matches
Overview

FC Groningen (10th place, 42 points) hosts NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 56 points) at Euroborg. Eredivisie match on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM. The visitors are competing for a top league position, while Groningen is in mid-table

Form

FC Groningen's form in their last five matches is WWDLL

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

NEC Nijmegen has a form of DWDDD in their last five games

This means 1 win and 4 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Groningen has averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the average is 1.39 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

NEC Nijmegen has a season average of 2.31 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

Away from home, NEC Nijmegen scores an average of 2.33 goals and concedes 1.73 goals

At Euroborg, the last 5 games have seen an average of 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 3 of these 5 games

4 of these 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, FC Groningen won 1 and NEC Nijmegen won 2

Overall, FC Groningen scored 2 goals and NEC Nijmegen scored 9 goals

The last encounter on November 09, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen has been dominant in recent meetings

Key Players

FC Groningen's attack is led by Thom van Bergen with 9 goals and 4 assists

Younes Taha contributed 5 goals and 7 assists

Dies Janse, a defender, showed goal threat with 2 goals and 2 assists

For NEC Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen is a key offensive player with 11 goals and 7 assists

Tjaronn Chery scored 10 goals and provided 6 assists

Sami Ouaissa was involved in 6 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Etienne Vaessen of FC Groningen recorded 10 clean sheets in 27 appearances

Gonzalo Crettaz of NEC Nijmegen kept 5 clean sheets in 29 appearances

Influences

FC Groningen scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.94 goals at home

NEC Nijmegen scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 1.73 goals away

The Euroborg has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

3 of these 5 matches ended with both teams scoring

In 4 of these 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

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