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Eredivisie

FC Twente - Sparta Rotterdam

05/10/2026, 02:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Twente
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Sparta Rotterdam
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FTSR

FC Twente

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.63
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.67
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente with Marko Pjaca: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sparta Rotterdam with Pelle Clement: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Twente: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • FC Twente is in significantly better form with WWWDD compared to Sparta Rotterdam's WDLLD
  • FC Twente utilizes their home advantage, scoring an average of 1.67 home goals while Sparta Rotterdam concedes an average of 1.94 away goals
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Twente with a probability of 48%
Risk Factors
  • FC Twente must do without injured first-choice goalkeeper L. Unnerstall (Abdominal Strain), leading to the deployment of Przemyslaw Tyton with only one season appearance
  • The history at De Grolsch Veste stadium shows that only 40% of the last 5 games had over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially low-scoring match
Overview

FC Twente (5th place, 55 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (9th place, 43 points) in the Eredivisie at De Grolsch Veste stadium. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM. FC Twente aims to solidify its position in the top half of the table, while Sparta Rotterdam seeks to climb further. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Twente with a probability of 48%.

Form

FC Twente's form across all competitions is WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their last two games ended in draws, including a 2-2 away against AZ and a 1-1 at home against NEC Nijmegen. Sparta Rotterdam's form (WDLLD) includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They recently drew 2-2 at home against Go Ahead Eagles, following a 1-4 away loss to Telstar. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Twente averages 1.69 goals scored per game and 1.09 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded. Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.19 goals scored per game and 1.72 goals conceded. Away, they score 1.19 goals and concede 1.94 goals per game. FC Twente recorded 7 clean sheets this season, while Sparta Rotterdam managed 11. At De Grolsch Veste stadium, the average total goals are 2.4 per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of the last 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of games.

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, FC Twente secured 3 wins, Sparta Rotterdam zero wins, and 2 matches ended in a draw. FC Twente holds a clear goal advantage with 12 scored versus Sparta Rotterdam's 5. The last encounter on September 19, 2025, saw FC Twente win 5-1 away against Sparta Rotterdam.

Key Players

FC Twente's offense is driven by Sam Lammers (6 goals, 7 assists, avg rating 7.14), Kristian Hlynsson (9 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.04), and Daan Rots (8 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.02). Sam Lammers shows a rising form trend with 1 goal and 5 assists in his last 5 games. For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen (12 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.29), Shunsuke Mito (7 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.05), and Mitchell van Bergen (3 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 6.88) are key contributors. Mitchell van Bergen shows a rising form trend with 2 assists in his last 4 games.

Goalkeepers

FC Twente's starting goalkeeper is Przemyslaw Tyton, who has 1 season appearance. The regular goalkeeper Lars Unnerstall is injured. Sparta Rotterdam features Joël Drommel, who played 32 games this season with an average rating of 7.21. FC Twente achieved 7 clean sheets this season, while Sparta Rotterdam recorded 11 clean sheets.

Influences

FC Twente holds a home advantage, scoring an average of 1.67 home goals and conceding 1.07. Sparta Rotterdam's away performance shows an average of 1.19 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded. De Grolsch Veste stadium is historically known for an average of 2.4 total goals per game. In the last five matches at this venue, both teams scored in 60% of cases.

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