Eredivisie
Telstar - Heracles Almelo
05/10/2026, 02:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Telstar
Heracles Almelo
League
The Lab
- 1Heracles Almelo with Mimeirhel Benita: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Telstar: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
26%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Telstar with a 49% win probability and 75% for a home win or draw
- Telstar's rising goal production (1.8 recent avg) contrasts sharply with Heracles' struggling attack (0.4 recent avg) and extremely high away goals conceded (4.18 avg)
- Telstar's better form (WLLWD) and league position (15th) compared to last-place Heracles Almelo (DLLLL, 18th)
Risk Factors
- Heracles Almelo has conceded an average of 4.18 goals per away game, indicating significant defensive vulnerability
- Only 1 head-to-head match exists in history, which limits the statistical significance
Overview
Telstar (15th place, 31 points) host Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) at the BUKO Stadion. The Eredivisie match will take place on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle.
Form
Telstar's form across all competitions in the last five games is WLLWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their last match ended in a draw, and the one before in a win. Heracles Almelo's form in the last five games is DLLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). The team has recorded four consecutive losses recently.
Statistics
Telstar has scored an average of 1.38 goals per game this season and conceded 1.69 goals. At home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded. Heracles Almelo has scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 2.5 goals. Away, their record is significantly weaker with 1.09 goals scored and 4.18 goals conceded per game. In Telstar's home matches, an average of 3.2 goals were scored per game. In 3 of 5 home games, both teams scored, and in 3 of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored. Telstar is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4). Heracles Almelo's goal production is faltering (0.4), with a season average of 1.1.
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Telstar and Heracles Almelo, which ended in a 1-1 draw on December 06, 2025. The goal difference is 1:1, indicating an even record.
Key Players
Telstar: Sem van Duijn has 5 season goals and 2 assists, with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Patrick Brouwer has 7 season goals and 5 assists. Jeff Hardeveld contributed 5 season goals and 6 assists. Heracles Almelo: Luka Kulenovic has 5 season goals and 3 assists. Walid Ould-Chikh provided 1 season goal and 4 assists. Mario Engels scored 1 season goal and 2 assists, with 1 goal in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Telstar's goalkeeper Ronald Koeman Jr. played in 31 season matches and recorded 4 clean sheets. Timo Jansink of Heracles Almelo played in 13 season matches and achieved 2 clean sheets.
Influences
Telstar has a record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses (18:17 goals) on artificial turf. Heracles Almelo has a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses (4:16 goals) on artificial turf. At the BUKO Stadion, an average of 3.2 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals scored in 3 of 5 matches.