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Eredivisie

Excelsior - FC Volendam

05/10/2026, 02:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Excelsior
1.5
Total xG
2.4
FC Volendam
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
EXCFV

Excelsior

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.28
Ilias Bronkhorst on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

FC Volendam

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.68
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09
Brandley Kuwas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Robin van Cruijsen on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Joel Ideho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Volendam with Robin van Cruijsen: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Excelsior with Emil Hansson: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Volendam: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Robert Mühren: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Volendam: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Excelsior is expected to win with a probability of 51%
  • Form advantage: Excelsior is unbeaten in two games and shows a positive form trend
  • Excelsior offensive strength: Excelsior is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Limited offensive strength for Volendam due to missing key players: Only 77% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, Brandley Kuwas (5G/4A), Robin van Cruijsen (4G/3A), Joel Ideho (1G/1A) are missing
  • Weak away defense for FC Volendam with an average of 3.1 goals conceded per away game
  • Goalkeeper change for Volendam: Regular goalkeeper K. van Oevelen is injured, Roy Steur with only one season appearance must start
Overview

Excelsior (14th place, 34 points) host FC Volendam (16th place, 31 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie match on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM

This is a crucial relegation battle between two teams separated by only 3 points

Form

Excelsior's recent form is D-L-D-W-W

They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The last game was a 3-2 away win against FC Groningen

FC Volendam's form is L-D-L-W-L

They had 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Volendam recently lost 0-2 to SC Heerenveen

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Excelsior averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.66 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

FC Volendam averages 1.03 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Volendam concedes an average of 3.1 goals while scoring 1.0 goals

Excelsior had both teams score in 20 matches and over 2.5 goals in 20 matches

Volendam had both teams score in 18 matches and over 2.5 goals in 19 matches

Excelsior's home matches at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion averaged 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2, FC Volendam won 1, and there were 0 draws

Excelsior scored 7 goals, while FC Volendam scored 4 goals

The last encounter was on September 20, 2025, with Excelsior winning 2-1 away

Excelsior has recently been the dominant team in direct comparisons

Key Players

For Excelsior, Derensili Sanches Fernandes is a key player with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, and an average rating of 7.79

Noah Naujoks has contributed 9 goals and 1 assist this season

Gyan de Regt has recorded 3 goals and 6 assists this season

For FC Volendam, Robert Mühren is an important player with 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Anthony Descotte has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Bilal Ould-Chikh provided 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Excelsior's goalkeeper, Stijn van Gassel, played in 30 season games and kept 6 clean sheets

For FC Volendam, Roy Steur has started 1 season game and achieved no clean sheets

Influences

Excelsior has a record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with 16:15 goals on artificial turf

FC Volendam has a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with 13:12 goals on artificial turf

The home advantage for Excelsior is evident with 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per home game

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