Eredivisie
Feyenoord - AZ
05/10/2026, 02:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.3
1.1
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Feyenoord
AZ
League
The Lab
- 1Feyenoord with Tobias van den Elshout: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Feyenoord: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3AZ: 46% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 13)
- 4AZ with Weslley Patati: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Feyenoord: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
23%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Feyenoord has a 58% probability of winning according to the mathematical analysis
- Feyenoord's strong home offense (avg. 2.11 goals) meets AZ's vulnerable away defense (avg. 2.18 goals conceded)
- Feyenoord's recent form of 5 unbeaten games is significantly better than AZ's
Risk Factors
- AZ concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
- Feyenoord's recent goal production is declining, averaging 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
- The model calculates a 61% probability for both teams to score
Overview
Feyenoord (2nd place, 61 points) host AZ (6th place, 50 points) at Stadion Feijenoord. The Eredivisie match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:45 PM. Feyenoord aims to consolidate their second position, while AZ is fighting for a European spot. The mathematical analysis gives Feyenoord a 58% chance of winning.
Form
Feyenoord is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, with 2 wins and 3 draws (Form: DDDWW). Their recent results include a 2-1 away win against Fortuna Sittard and a 3-1 home win against FC Groningen. AZ, on the other hand, shows mixed form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss (Form: LWDDD). Their last match was a 2-2 home draw against FC Twente, preceded by a 0-0 away draw against Go Ahead Eagles.
Statistics
Feyenoord scores an average of 2.09 goals per game this season and concedes 1.34 goals. At home, the average is 2.11 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded. AZ scores an average of 1.69 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Away from home, AZ's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.18 goals. Stadion Feijenoord has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Feyenoord dominated with 4 wins, while AZ failed to secure a victory, managing 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 9:5 in favor of Feyenoord. The last meeting ended in a 3-3 draw on September 21, 2025. The home team has been the dominant force in recent matches.
Key Players
For Feyenoord, Ayase Ueda is the most dangerous attacker with 25 goals and 1 assist this season, although his form trend is slightly declining. Jordan Bos has a high impact as a defender with 4 goals and 7 assists. Anis Hadj Moussa contributes to the offense with 8 goals and 6 assists. For AZ, Troy Parrott is the top scorer of the season with 15 goals and 3 assists. Sven Mijnans shows a rising form with 10 goals and 5 assists. Mees de Wit is an important factor as a defender with 3 goals and 6 assists.
Goalkeepers
Timon Wellenreuther is Feyenoord's goalkeeper and played 31 season games, keeping 9 clean sheets. He has an average season rating of 6.91. For AZ, Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro is in goal, keeping 9 clean sheets in 21 season games and having an average rating of 6.79.
Influences
Feyenoord holds a clear home advantage, averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded in home games. AZ's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.18 goals per away game. Stadion Feijenoord is known for high-scoring matches; the last 5 games here averaged 2.6 goals. In 80% of these matches, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of them.