Eredivisie
AZ - NAC Breda
05/17/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.7
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
12%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
AZ
NAC Breda
League
The Lab
- 1NAC Breda with Juho Talvitie: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2AZ: 60% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 10)
- 3AZ with Ro-Zangelo Daal: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4AZ: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5NAC Breda: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
25%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- AZ is favored to win at home with approximately 61% probability according to mathematical analysis
- NAC Breda's squad strength is critically reduced: Only 34% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Boy Kemper (5G/3A), Lewis Holtby (1G/5A), Mohamed Nassoh (5G/1A), and Raul Paula (2G/2A)
- AZ is offensively strong at home (Avg. 1.64 goals) and faces a weak away defense from NAC Breda (Avg. 2.67 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- NAC Breda concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Limited data available for the total number of duels in the last 5 games for both teams
Overview
AZ (6th place, 51 points) host NAC Breda (17th place, 28 points) at the AFAS Stadion
The Eredivisie match takes place on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM
AZ enters this home game as a clear favorite
Mathematical analysis indicates a home win with approximately 61% probability
Form
AZ's form in the last five matches is 'WDDDD' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to one win and four draws
AZ's current form is stable according to the analysis
NAC Breda shows a form of 'DDLLW'
This means one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five games
NAC Breda is in a negative form trend according to the analysis
Statistics
AZ scores an average of 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.45 goals
At home, AZ is stronger offensively with an average of 1.64 goals and defensively with 1.05 goals conceded per home game
AZ kept 9 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 21 matches
NAC Breda scores an average of 0.97 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game
Away, NAC Breda is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game
NAC Breda has achieved only 6 clean sheets so far, and both teams scored in 15 games
The AFAS Stadion recorded an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games at the AFAS Stadion
Head-to-Head
In the 3 direct encounters so far, AZ recorded 2 wins
One match ended in a draw, NAC Breda secured no wins
AZ scored 4 goals, while NAC Breda managed 2 goals
AZ won the last encounter on August 31, 2025, with a 1-0 score
Key Players
For AZ, Troy Parrott is a key offensive player with 16 season goals and 3 assists
He scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a stable form
Sven Mijnans, in midfield, contributed 10 goals and 5 assists this season
He also scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a stable form
Defender Alexandre Penetra showed improved performance with a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
AZ's goalkeeper Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro played 22 games
His team kept 9 clean sheets this season
Daniel Bielica was in goal for NAC Breda in 32 games
NAC Breda achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The AFAS Stadion saw an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five matches
4 out of 5 games at the AFAS Stadion ended with over 2.5 goals
AZ is strong offensively at home with an average of 1.64 goals per game
Defensively, AZ concedes an average of 1.05 goals in their home stadium
NAC Breda appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game