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Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle - Feyenoord

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
PEC Zwolle
1.0
Total xG
2.7
Feyenoord
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
PZFEY

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.97
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.36
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Kaj de Rooij on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Anselmo GarcĆ­a MacNulty on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Ryan Thomas not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Feyenoord

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Ayase Ueda on the bench (25 goals, 1 assists)
Tsuyoshi WatanabeĀ  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Mats Deijl on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Feyenoord: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    PEC Zwolle: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Feyenoord: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Feyenoord with Raheem Sterling: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

27%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Feyenoord dominated head-to-head matches, winning all last five encounters with a goal difference of 2:22
  • Feyenoord is unbeaten in their last five games, while PEC Zwolle suffered a loss in three of their last five matches
  • Feyenoord shows a very strong away record on artificial turf with 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 15:2 goals
Overview

PEC Zwolle (13th place, 37 points) host Feyenoord (2nd place, 62 points) at the MACĀ³PARK Stadion. The Eredivisie match will take place on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. Feyenoord is fighting for a top spot, while PEC Zwolle is positioned in the lower mid-table.

Form

PEC Zwolle's last five games show a form of 'LDLWL', with one win, one draw, and three losses. Their last match was a 2-3 loss against Fortuna Sittard, preceded by a 1-0 win against Heracles Almelo. Feyenoord is unbeaten in their last five matches, with a form of 'DDWWD', consisting of two wins and three draws. Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against AZ, following a 2-1 win against Fortuna Sittard. The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 54% probability.

Statistics

PEC Zwolle scores an average of 1.31 goals at home and concedes 1.19 goals per home game, with five clean sheets. Feyenoord, however, scores an average of 2.07 goals away and concedes 1.5 goals per away game, also with five clean sheets. At the MACĀ³PARK Stadion, an average of 2.0 total goals were scored in the last five games, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 40% of games. PEC Zwolle's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.4. Feyenoord's goal production is at 1.8, which is below their season average of 2.0.

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Feyenoord dominated with five wins and zero losses against PEC Zwolle. The goal difference in these encounters is 2:22 in favor of Feyenoord. The last meeting on December 6, 2025, ended with a 6-1 victory for Feyenoord.

Key Players

For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons (11 goals, 6 assists), Thijs Oosting (6 goals, 3 assists), and Zico Buurmeester (2 goals, 0 assists) are key players. Koen Kostons shows declining form with 0 goals and 0 assists in the last five games. Thijs Oosting recorded 1 goal and 2 assists in the last five matches, indicating stable form. Zico Buurmeester has scored 2 goals in his last five games and is in rising form. Not nominated: Kaj de Rooij (6G/6A), Anselmo GarcĆ­a MacNulty (2G/0A), Ryan Thomas (1G/1A). For Feyenoord, Anis Hadj Moussa (9 goals, 6 assists), Jordan Bos (4 goals, 7 assists), and Luciano Valente (2 goals, 6 assists) are important players. Anis Hadj Moussa has 1 goal and 1 assist in the last five games, showing declining form. Jordan Bos scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last five matches in stable form. Luciano Valente contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last five games and is in stable form. Not nominated: Ayase Ueda (25G/1A), Tsuyoshi Watanabe (2G/0A), Mats Deijl (0G/2A).

Goalkeepers

PEC Zwolle's goalkeeper Duke Verduin has not made any appearances this season. Feyenoord's goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther has made 32 appearances. PEC Zwolle has recorded a total of 6 clean sheets this season, Feyenoord 9 clean sheets.

Influences

Home team PEC Zwolle has a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with 16:11 goals on artificial turf. Feyenoord shows a very strong away record on artificial turf with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 15:2 goals. At the MACĀ³PARK Stadion, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches.

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