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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - Ajax

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Ajax
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SHAJA

SC Heerenveen

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Maxence Rivera not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Lasse Nordås on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)

Ajax

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.01
Oscar Gloukh on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Youri Regeer on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Heerenveen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Ajax with Rayane Bounida: 8.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Ajax: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    SC Heerenveen with Maxence Rivera: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Heerenveen with a probability of 51%
  • SC Heerenveen showed a strong offensive performance in the last 5 home games, averaging 5.2 shots on target
  • The Abe Lenstra Stadion has a high goal rate with an average of 4.0 goals per game and 100% over 2.5 in the last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • SC Heerenveen is without M. Rivera (Hamstring Injury), L. Smans (Knee Injury), and A. Van Axel Dongen (Thigh Muscle Strain)
  • Ajax is missing O. Edvardsen (Unknown Injury), V. Jaroš (Knee Injury), J. Heerkens (Ankle Injury), O. Wijndal (Unknown Injury), O. Zinchenko (Cruciate Ligament Injury), and K. Fitz-Jim (Shoulder Injury)
Overview

SC Heerenveen (8th place, 50 points) hosts Ajax (5th place, 55 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Eredivisie match on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM

Heerenveen is vying for a respectable mid-table finish, while Ajax aims to qualify for European competitions

Form

SC Heerenveen's form across all competitions is WLWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Their last match resulted in a loss

Ajax shows a form of LWWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Ajax's last match was also a loss

In their last five home games, Heerenveen recorded 3 wins and 2 losses, while Ajax registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses away from home

Statistics

SC Heerenveen averages 1.73 goals scored per game and concedes 1.61 goals

At home, they average 1.74 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded

Ajax averages 1.88 goals scored per game and concedes 1.24 goals

Away from home, they average 1.88 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded

SC Heerenveen has kept 4 clean sheets this season, Ajax has 9

The Abe Lenstra Stadion has seen an average of 4.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, SC Heerenveen has 1 win, Ajax has 3 wins, and there has been 1 draw

SC Heerenveen scored 5 goals, while Ajax scored 10 goals

The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Ajax has been the more dominant side in recent away head-to-head fixtures

Key Players

Jacob Trenskow is a key attacker for Heerenveen with 12 goals and 5 assists in 32 season appearances

Joris van Overeem has proven to be an effective midfielder with 9 assists and 2 goals in 32 games

Dylan Vente contributed to the offense with 7 goals and 2 assists in 29 appearances

Mika Godts is Ajax's top scorer with 17 goals and 12 assists in 31 season appearances

Wout Weghorst has been a crucial asset with 8 goals and 4 assists in 26 games

Davy Klaassen scored 6 goals and 2 assists in 28 season appearances for Ajax

Goalkeepers

SC Heerenveen's goalkeeper, Bernt Klaverboer, played 28 season matches

Ajax goalkeeper Maarten Paes made 10 season appearances

SC Heerenveen kept 4 clean sheets this season, while Ajax recorded 9

Influences

The Abe Lenstra Stadion is a high-scoring venue, averaging 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in all of these 5 games

SC Heerenveen showed good home scoring statistics with an average of 1.74 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded

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