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Eredivisie

Heracles Almelo - FC Groningen

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Heracles Almelo
1.1
Total xG
3.0
FC Groningen
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
HAFG

Heracles Almelo

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.74
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.11
Luka Kulenovic not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Ivan Mesik not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

FC Groningen

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.60
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
S. Resink not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    FC Groningen: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Heracles Almelo: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    FC Groningen: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

25%

Away Win

53%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

47%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Heracles Almelo recently showed low shot efficiency with an average of 3.0 shots on target per game and a stagnant goal production of 0.2 goals
  • FC Groningen presents positive form with an increased goal production of 1.8 goals per game and a more stable defense (1.33 goals conceded per game)
  • FC Groningen recently dominated direct encounters with two wins in three games, including a 4-0 victory
Risk Factors
  • Heracles Almelo averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • FC Groningen concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
Overview

Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) host FC Groningen (9th place, 45 points) at Asito Stadion

Eredivisie match on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM

Heracles is at the bottom of the table, while Groningen holds a solid mid-table position

Form

Heracles Almelo shows concerning form with five consecutive losses (LLLLL)

FC Groningen has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches (WDLLW)

Heracles' last match ended in a 0-3 away defeat against Telstar

Groningen won their last game at home 2-1 against NEC Nijmegen

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.03 goals and concedes 2.52 goals per game

FC Groningen scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per game

Heracles scored an average of 1.05 goals and conceded 1.62 goals in home games

FC Groningen scored 1.43 goals and conceded 1.86 goals per away game

Heracles kept two clean sheets this season, while Groningen kept ten

At Asito Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals were scored per game, and both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In three recent head-to-head matches, Heracles Almelo has not secured a victory

FC Groningen won two of these encounters, with one game ending in a draw

The goal difference in these matches stands at 2:9 in favor of FC Groningen

The last meeting on August 29, 2025, resulted in a 4-0 win for FC Groningen

Key Players

For Heracles Almelo, Walid Ould-Chikh is a key player with 1 goal and 4 assists this season

Sem Scheperman scored 1 goal and 1 assist this season, showing stable form

Damon Mirani as a defender has 3 season goals

For FC Groningen, Younes Taha is crucial with 5 goals and 9 assists across the season and shows stable form

Thom van Bergen contributed 9 goals and 4 assists and also shows stable form

Dies Janse, a defender, scored 2 goals and 2 assists, and his form trend is rising

Goalkeepers

Heracles Almelo's goalkeeper, Timo Jansink, has an average rating of 6.76 in 14 season appearances

Heracles Almelo's team recorded two clean sheets this season

For FC Groningen, goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen played in 28 games with an average rating of 6.84

FC Groningen achieved ten clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Asito Stadion

Heracles Almelo has a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses on artificial turf with a 4:17 goal difference

FC Groningen recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf with a 7:6 goal difference

At Asito Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals were scored per game in the last five matches

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