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Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen - Go Ahead Eagles

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
NEC Nijmegen
2.3
Total xG
3.3
Go Ahead Eagles
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
NNGAE

NEC Nijmegen

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.32
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.09
Eli Dasa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Go Ahead Eagles

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.49
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.34
Rising form (2.7 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.34
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Aske Adelgaard not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Go Ahead Eagles with Thibo Baeten: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen with Youssef El Kachati: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    NEC Nijmegen: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

21%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for NEC Nijmegen with a 67% probability
  • NEC Nijmegen's strong home offense, averaging 2.29 goals per home game, faces a weak Go Ahead Eagles defense that concedes 2.25 goals per away game
  • According to tactical analysis, NEC Nijmegen has been possession-dominant (57% possession) in their last 5 games, with an average of 5.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Go Ahead Eagles concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • NEC Nijmegen's goal production has been declining in the last 5 games, with only 1.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.3 goals
  • The historical head-to-head record shows that Go Ahead Eagles won 3 of the last 5 matches against NEC Nijmegen and did not lose any
Overview

NEC Nijmegen (4th place, 56 points) host Go Ahead Eagles (12th place, 38 points) at Goffertstadion. The Eredivisie match is on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. NEC is fighting for a European spot, while Go Ahead Eagles aims to stay clear of the relegation zone.

Form

NEC Nijmegen shows a form of WDDDL

This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Go Ahead Eagles also has a form of WDDDL

With 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

NEC suffered a loss in their last game after three consecutive draws

Go Ahead Eagles also suffered a loss in their last game after three consecutive draws

Statistics

NEC Nijmegen scores an average of 2.27 goals per game and concedes 1.58 goals

Go Ahead Eagles scores an average of 1.61 goals and concedes 1.55 goals

At home, NEC is strong offensively with an average of 2.29 goals per home game

The home defense allows 1.41 goals per match

Go Ahead Eagles is more vulnerable away with 2.25 goals conceded per away game

At Goffertstadion, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches over recent years, NEC Nijmegen has not secured a single win

Go Ahead Eagles won 3 games, and 2 ended in a draw

The goal difference of 6:13 clearly favors Go Ahead Eagles

The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

The recent record indicates a dominance by Go Ahead Eagles

Key Players

For NEC Nijmegen: Bryan Linssen (11 season goals, 7 assists) shows a slightly declining form with 2 goals in 5 games

Tjaronn Chery (10 season goals, 6 assists) maintains his form with 1 goal in 5 games

Sami Ouaissa (6 season goals, 6 assists) is improving with 3 assists in his last 5 matches

For Go Ahead Eagles: Mathis Suray (12 season goals, 2 assists) scored 2 goals in his last 5 games

Victor Edvardsen (4 season goals, 6 assists) contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Jakob Breum (6 season goals, 5 assists) recorded 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Gonzalo Crettaz of NEC Nijmegen kept 5 clean sheets this season

Jari De Busser of Go Ahead Eagles recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

NEC Nijmegen has a home advantage with an average of 2.29 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded in home games

At Goffertstadion, the last 5 games averaged 3.2 total goals

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 60%

The match takes place on grass

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