Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior
05/17/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.1
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
League
The Lab
- 1Sparta Rotterdam with Pelle Clement: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Sparta Rotterdam: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 3Sparta Rotterdam: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Excelsior: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
27%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close game with a slight home tendency (40% home win) and a high probability for both teams to score (63% BTTS)
- Excelsior shows a positive form trend with recently increased goal production (averaging 2.2 goals), while Sparta Rotterdam's offense is stagnant (0.8 goals)
- The away team Excelsior averaged 5.6 shots on target in the last 5 games, while Sparta Rotterdam only had 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Sparta Rotterdam averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Excelsior concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Sparta Rotterdam's goal production shows a negative trend and has recently stagnated (0.8 goals)
Overview
Sparta Rotterdam (10th place, 43 points) host Excelsior (14th place, 35 points) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Eredivisie match on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM
Both teams are in the middle of the table, with Excelsior closer to the relegation zone
Form
Sparta Rotterdam shows poor form in the last five games with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (DLLDL)
Excelsior, on the other hand, is in better shape with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (LDWWD)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
The home team scored 3 goals and conceded 12 in these matches
Excelsior scored 11 goals and conceded 7 in their last five away games
Statistics
Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.15 goals scored per game and concedes 1.79 goals
At home, they score 1.19 goals and concede 1.5 goals
Excelsior averages 1.21 goals scored and concedes 1.64 goals per game
Away from home, Excelsior scores 1.18 goals and concedes 1.88 goals
Sparta Rotterdam kept 11 clean sheets, while Excelsior managed 6
Both teams scored in 14 of Sparta's games and 21 of Excelsior's games
Sparta's home ground sees an average of 2.4 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In 3 direct duels so far, Sparta Rotterdam has secured 2 wins, while Excelsior won 1 match
There were no draws
Sparta Rotterdam scored a total of 6 goals, with Excelsior scoring 4
The last encounter on September 14, 2025, ended in a 0-1 away win for Sparta Rotterdam
Key Players
Key players for Sparta Rotterdam include Tobias Lauritsen (12 goals, 4 assists), Shunsuke Mito (7 goals, 3 assists), and Joshua Kitolano (5 goals, 2 assists)
For Excelsior, Derensili Sanches Fernandes (6 goals, 3 assists), Noah Naujoks (9 goals, 1 assist), and Gyan de Regt (3 goals, 6 assists) stand out
Derensili Sanches Fernandes shows a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
Joƫl Drommel is in goal for Sparta Rotterdam, having kept 11 clean sheets this season
For Excelsior, Stijn van Gassel is the number one and managed to keep a clean sheet in 6 games
Influences
At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and only 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
On artificial turf, Sparta Rotterdam has a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with a goal difference of 12:13
Excelsior scored 15 goals and conceded 15 goals in 10 games on artificial turf, with 1 win, 5 draws, and 4 losses