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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - Fortuna Sittard

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Fortuna Sittard
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
FUFS

FC Utrecht

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.44
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.18
Ángel Alarcón not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Artem Stepanov on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Matisse Didden not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Fortuna Sittard

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
P. Gladon not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    FC Utrecht with Sébastien Haller: 8.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Fortuna Sittard with Justin Hubner: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

24%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58% probability
  • Utrecht's home strength: FC Utrecht concedes an average of only 0.72 goals per home game
  • Form trend: FC Utrecht currently scores more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), while Fortuna Sittard's goal production is faltering (1.2 goals compared to 1.5 goals season average)
Risk Factors
  • Fortuna's weakened attack: P. Gladon is suspended, resulting in 22% missing goal production
  • Fortuna's away defense: Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • Head-to-head record: Fortuna Sittard dominated recent direct encounters and won the last away game
Overview

FC Utrecht (7th place, 50 points) host Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 39 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard. The Eredivisie match takes place on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. Utrecht is fighting for a European spot, while Fortuna Sittard aims for a secure mid-table position

Form

FC Utrecht's current form (LWLWW) shows 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, including 2 consecutive wins. Recent results include a 2-1 away win against Ajax and a 2-0 home win against NAC Breda. Fortuna Sittard (LDLLW) recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games. They recently secured a 3-2 home win against PEC Zwolle, followed by losses to Feyenoord and SC Heerenveen. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

FC Utrecht averages 1.61 goals scored per game and concedes 1.27 goals. At home, Utrecht shows strong defensive performance with an average of 1.61 goals scored and only 0.72 goals conceded. Fortuna Sittard averages 1.48 goals scored per game and 1.85 goals conceded. Away from home, Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.29 goals per match and has zero clean sheets in away games this season. Utrecht recorded 8 clean sheets this season, compared to Fortuna Sittard's 3. Utrecht saw both teams score in 20 matches and over 2.5 goals in 17 matches. Fortuna Sittard had both teams score in 26 matches and over 2.5 goals in 23 matches. The previous 5 matches at Stadion Galgenwaard averaged 2.6 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters between these teams, FC Utrecht claimed 1 win, there were 2 draws, and Fortuna Sittard secured 2 wins. The goal difference is balanced at 6:6. The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Fortuna Sittard

Key Players

For FC Utrecht, Gjivai Zechiël is crucial with 8 season goals and 5 assists, maintaining stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Dani de Wit is also key with 6 goals and 3 assists, showing rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances. Souffian El Karouani, with 2 goals and 11 assists, is important despite a recent dip in form. For Fortuna Sittard, Kaj Sierhuis stands out with 12 season goals and 1 assist, showing stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Dimitrios Limnios contributed 2 goals and 6 assists, with 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. Philip Brittijn provided 4 goals and 1 assist, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Vasilios Barkas, FC Utrecht's goalkeeper, played 32 season matches and kept 8 clean sheets. Mattijs Branderhorst, Fortuna Sittard's goalkeeper, made 23 season appearances and achieved 3 clean sheets

Influences

FC Utrecht displays a clear home advantage, averaging 1.61 goals scored and conceding only 0.72 goals at home. Venue statistics at Galgenwaard show an average of 2.6 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 matches

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