Eredivisie
PSV - FC Twente
05/17/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.5
1.6
2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%3:1
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
PSV
FC Twente
League
The Lab
- 1FC Twente with Mathias Kjølø: 12.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2PSV: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3PSV with Yarek Gasiorowski: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4FC Twente: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5FC Twente: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
24%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
69%
Under 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
47%
Under 3.5
53%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
69%
No
31%
Key Factors
- PSV's dominant head-to-head record (5 wins in 5 direct duels, 15:2 goals) against FC Twente
- PSV's strong offense, currently scoring more frequently (3.6 goals/game) than their season average (2.7 goals/game)
- The Philips Stadion favors high-scoring matches with an average of 4.8 goals per game, which suits PSV's offensive strength
Risk Factors
- PSV will be without key players such as Joey Veerman (8 goals/14 assists), Mauro Júnior (1 goal/9 assists), and Esmir Bajraktarevic (4 goals/4 assists), impacting their usual starting XI strength (86% available)
- FC Twente's starting goalkeeper L. Unnerstall is absent due to an abdominal strain
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% probability of a home win for PSV, suggesting a potentially tighter match than table positions might imply
Overview
PSV (1st place, 81 points) host FC Twente (3rd place, 58 points) at the Philips Stadion
Eredivisie match on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM
PSV is aiming for the title, while Twente is fighting for international spots
Form
PSV is in excellent form with a record of WWWDW across all competitions
This equates to 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games
Their last win was a 4-1 away victory against Go Ahead Eagles, followed by a 2-2 draw against Ajax
FC Twente is also in good form with WWDDW, consisting of 3 wins and 2 draws
Most recently, they secured a 4-0 home win against Sparta Rotterdam, after a 2-2 away draw against AZ
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
PSV shows a strong offense with an average of 2.91 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.33 goals
At home, they even score 2.94 goals per game and concede 1.39 goals
FC Twente has a solid offense with 1.76 goals per game and a robust defense with 1.06 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Twente scores 1.71 goals and concedes 1.12 goals
The Philips Stadion is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.8 goals per match
In all of the last 5 matches at the Philips Stadion, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches over recent years, PSV clearly dominated
PSV won all 5 matches, while FC Twente recorded no wins and no draws
The goal difference is 15:2 in favour of PSV
The last encounter saw PSV win 2-0 away against FC Twente on August 17, 2025
Key Players
For PSV, Ricardo Pepi with 15 season goals and 1 assist, Guus Til with 13 goals and 5 assists, and Ivan Perišić with 7 goals and 10 assists are crucial
Pepi shows a rising form trend with 5 goals in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.64
For FC Twente, Kristian Hlynsson with 10 goals and 4 assists, Daan Rots with 9 goals and 4 assists, and Sam Lammers with 6 goals and 7 assists are noteworthy
Rots and Lammers also show rising form trends
Goalkeepers
PSV goalkeeper Matej Kovar played 30 season games and kept 7 clean sheets
FC Twente recorded 8 clean sheets this season, with Przemyslaw Tyton playing in 2 season games
Influences
PSV has a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 2.94 home goals and conceding 1.39 goals at the Philips Stadion
The stadium itself is known for a high goal frequency, with an average of 4.8 goals per game
In all of the last 5 matches at the Philips Stadion, both teams scored
The grass playing surface is a standard factor