Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund
01/24/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.3
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
35%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Dortmund's superior offense (1.94 goals/game) meets Union's solid home defense (1.18 goals conceded/game), which is the central duel of the match
- Dortmund's historical H2H dominance (4 of 5 wins) contrasts with the stats of the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, which favors goals from both sides (80% BTTS rate), suggesting potential for an upset
- Both teams are in good form, with Union unbeaten in 5 games (WWDDD) and Dortmund winning 3 of their last 5 (WDWWL), pointing towards a tight contest
Risk Factors
- The predicted goals (1.60 vs 1.66) indicate a very balanced game where small details could be decisive, making the outcome unpredictable
- Both teams are facing key absences: Union Berlin is missing suspended defender Derrick Köhn, while Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer is doubtful
Overview
FC Union Berlin, in 9th place with 24 points, hosts 2nd-placed Borussia Dortmund with 39 points. The Bundesliga match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 6:30 PM at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. It's a clash between a mid-table team and a title contender.
Form
FC Union Berlin: WWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 games, Union Berlin secured 2 wins and 3 draws, remaining unbeaten
Borussia Dortmund: WDWWL
Dortmund recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Both teams are in strong form, though Dortmund has achieved more victories
Statistics
Borussia Dortmund has the stronger attack with an average of 1.94 goals per game compared to Union Berlin's 1.33
Defensively, Dortmund is also superior, conceding only 0.94 goals on average, while Union concedes 1.5
At the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, games average 3.0 total goals, and in 80% of recent matches, both teams scored
Union Berlin scored in 11 of 18 league games, while Borussia Dortmund scored in 9 of 18.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins, while FC Union Berlin won only once
The goal difference is 16:4 in favor of Dortmund
The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund has been the clearly superior team in recent meetings
Key Players
Andrej Ilic has provided 8 assists for Union Berlin this season
Woo-yeong Jeong is showing rising form, having scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
For Borussia Dortmund, Julian Brandt has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season
Defender Nico Schlotterbeck is also a goal threat with 2 seasonal goals and boasts a high average rating of 7.40
Goalkeepers
Union Berlin's Frederik Rönnow has kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches
Borussia Dortmund's Gregor Kobel has already kept 9 clean sheets in 18 games, leading the league in this statistic
Influences
The statistics for the Stadion An der Alten Försterei suggest a high-scoring game, with a goal rate of 3.0 per match and an 80% rate for 'Both Teams to Score' in the last five fixtures
Borussia Dortmund has a stronger record on natural grass with 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, compared to Union Berlin's 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses