Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - FC Köln
01/25/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.1
1.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
27%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
37%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Massive weakening of the visitors: FC Köln is missing top scorer S. El Mala, who is responsible for 26% of their season's goals
- Home strength meets away weakness: Freiburg's stable defense (1.0 goals conceded/home game) faces Köln's vulnerable backline (2.14 goals conceded/away game)
- Diverging form trends: Freiburg has been more stable over the last five games (3 wins), while Köln shows a negative trend (3 losses)
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for Freiburg: The home team has only had a 3-day break since their last match
- Recent H2H result: Despite the overall record, Köln won the last head-to-head encounter convincingly 4-1
- Numerous absences on both sides: Both teams are missing several key players, which could affect performance
Overview
SC Freiburg (8th place, 24 points) hosts FC Köln (10th place, 20 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion
This is a Bundesliga match on January 25, 2026, at 5:30 PM
A mid-table clash where Freiburg will try to maintain the distance to the European spots
Form
SC Freiburg: WWLDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
FC Köln: LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The form curve clearly favors SC Freiburg, who have picked up points much more consistently in the last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are comparable, with Freiburg scoring an average of 1.61 goals per game and Köln 1.5
Defensively, there is a clear difference between home and away games
Freiburg is very stable at home, conceding only 1.0 goal per game
On the other hand, Köln is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.14 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, SC Freiburg has the upper hand with 3 wins, while FC Köln won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Freiburg
However, the last meeting on August 31, 2025, was won by FC Köln 4-1
Key Players
Vincenzo Grifo is a key offensive player for Freiburg with 6 goals this season
Igor Matanovic is in good form, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
For Köln, Ragnar Ache is a central striker with 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games
Jakub Kamiński has already scored 5 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Freiburg's goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches
Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln has 2 clean sheets in 18 appearances
Statistically, Atubolu has a better clean sheet record this season
Influences
The home advantage for Freiburg is statistically significant
They have a positive home record (5W-3D-2L), while Köln has a negative record away (2W-3D-5L)
At the Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game, which suggests games with fewer goals
Both teams are used to the natural grass surface