Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - FC Bayern München
01/31/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.7
2.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
14%
Draw
20%
Away Win
66%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
34%
Away or Draw
86%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Offensive firepower: Bayern's attack (3.79 goals/game) meets a vulnerable HSV defense (1.5 goals conceded/game)
- Historical dominance: FC Bayern has won the last 5 encounters with a goal difference of 21-0
- Drastic form gap: Bayern arrives with 4 wins from 5 games, while HSV is winless in their last 5
Risk Factors
- Fatigue for Bayern: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could affect performance
- Home advantage factor: Goals are often scored by both teams at the Volksparkstadion (80% BTTS rate), which could give HSV a chance
Overview
Hamburger SV, in 14th place with 18 points, hosts league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 50 points) at the Volksparkstadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on January 31, 2026, at 6:30 PM. For HSV, it's about crucial points in the relegation battle, while Bayern aims to solidify their top position.
Form
Hamburger SV: LDLDD - 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in the last five matches
FC Bayern München: WWWLW - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in the last five matches
The form clearly favors FC Bayern München, who have won four of their last five games, while Hamburger SV remains winless
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FC Bayern München's attack, averaging 3.79 goals per game, is far superior to Hamburger SV's (0.94 goals per game)
Bayern's superiority is also evident in defense, conceding an average of only 0.84 goals, compared to HSV's 1.5 goals per game
Bayern is particularly prolific away from home, with an average of 4.0 goals per game
At the Volksparkstadion, 80% of recent matches have seen both teams score, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Head-to-Head
The historical record is dominated by Bayern München
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 5 wins for Bayern and none for Hamburger SV
The goal difference is 21:0 in favor of FC Bayern München
The last encounter ended in a 5:0 victory for Bayern, highlighting their clear dominance
Key Players
For Hamburger SV, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Rayan Philippe have each scored 4 goals this season
Defender Luka Vuskovic has also contributed 3 goals
For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane is the standout player with 21 season goals and 4 assists
Michael Olise also shines with 10 goals and 14 assists, while Luis Díaz has contributed 9 goals and 9 assists
Goalkeepers
Hamburger SV's Daniel Heuer Fernandes has kept 5 clean sheets in 18 appearances this season
Jonas Urbig, starting for Bayern München, has made 4 appearances
Overall, FC Bayern München has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
The statistics for the Volksparkstadion show a high rate of 80% for matches where both teams scored
On natural grass, Hamburger SV has a negative record with only 2 wins in 10 matches
FC Bayern München, on the other hand, is extremely strong on this surface, winning 8 of their last 10 games