Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - FSV Mainz 05
01/31/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.7
1.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
21%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Offensive advantage for Leipzig: Leipzig's strong home attack (2.0 goals per game) meets Mainz's vulnerable away defense (1.9 goals conceded per game)
- Tactical dominance expected: Leipzig's possession-based style (56% possession) and high shot frequency (6.0 shots on target) are likely to control the game
- Contrasting form: While Leipzig's goal output has recently declined (1.6 goals avg), Mainz's attack shows a positive trend (2.0 goals avg)
Risk Factors
- Balanced H2H record: The historical record between the teams is perfectly balanced with two wins each and one draw, suggesting Mainz is a difficult opponent for Leipzig
- Leipzig's injury concerns: The absence of several key players like Baumgartner and Lukeba could impact team performance, even though the remaining goal threat is high
- Leipzig's negative form curve: The recent trend shows a decreasing goal output for the home team, which poses a risk to their favorite status
Overview
RB Leipzig (4th place, 36 points) hosts FSV Mainz 05 (16th place, 15 points) at the Red Bull Arena
The Bundesliga match will take place on January 31, 2026, at 3:30 PM
For Leipzig, the goal is to consolidate a spot in the top 4, while Mainz needs crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
RB Leipzig: LWLWD - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05: DDWLW - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Mainz has shown slightly more stable form recently
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
RB Leipzig scores an average of 2.0 goals per game this season, and also 2.0 at home
FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.11 goals per game, with 1.1 away from home
Defensively, Leipzig concedes an average of 1.0 goal at home, while Mainz concedes 1.9 goals on the road
Leipzig has kept a clean sheet in 9 out of 18 matches, whereas Mainz has only managed it in 1 out of 19
The Red Bull Arena has seen an average of 3.8 goals in recent games, with both teams scoring in 80% of cases
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 direct encounters is completely balanced
RB Leipzig has won 2 matches, as has FSV Mainz 05, with one draw
The goal difference is also identical at 4:4
The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Leipzig
Key Players
Christoph Baumgartner is a key player for the attack with 6 goals and 7 assists
Rômulo and Yan Diomande have also scored 6 league goals each
Defender David Raum has contributed significantly with 3 goals and 3 assists
Nadiem Amiri is the top scorer for the visitors with 6 goals this season
Jae-sung Lee has 2 goals and 2 assists to his name
Goalkeepers
Péter Gulácsi has played in 18 league games for RB Leipzig, with the team keeping 9 clean sheets
For FSV Mainz 05, Daniel Batz (7 appearances) and Robin Zentner (9 appearances) have shared goalkeeping duties
Mainz has only managed one clean sheet all season
Influences
Leipzig shows clear home strength with an average of 2.0 goals scored versus 1.0 conceded per home game
Statistics from the Red Bull Arena suggest a high-scoring match, with an average of 3.8 goals per game and an 80% rate for 'Both Teams to Score'
On grass, Leipzig has a record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses
Mainz's record on this surface is 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses