Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim - FC Union Berlin
01/31/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.2
1.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Clear form momentum: Hoffenheim is unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins), while Union Berlin has been waiting for a win for 4 games.
- Offensive advantage for Hoffenheim: The home team is currently scoring 2.8 goals per game, significantly more than their season average (2.2), while Union's attack (1.0) is stagnating.
- Union's defensive vulnerability away from home: Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game, suggesting they will struggle against Hoffenheim's potent attack.
Risk Factors
- Tight goal prediction: The expected goals (1.59 to 1.57) are almost identical, suggesting a very balanced match where a draw is possible.
- Historical record: FC Union Berlin has a slightly better recent head-to-head record (3 wins from 5 matches).
- Potential fatigue: Hoffenheim has had fewer rest days since their last match, which could be a minor disadvantage.
Overview
TSG Hoffenheim, in 3rd place with 39 points, hosts FC Union Berlin, who are in 9th place with 24 points, at the PreZero Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on January 31, 2026, at 3:30 PM. Hoffenheim aims to solidify their position among the top teams, while Union Berlin seeks to stay in touch with the upper half of the table.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim is in excellent form: DWWWW - which corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw in the last five games. They are on a 4-game winning streak. FC Union Berlin's form is inconsistent: WDDDL - resulting in 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. The recent form clearly favors the home team. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Hoffenheim's attack is stronger, averaging 2.11 goals per game compared to Union Berlin's 1.26. At home, Hoffenheim is particularly dangerous with 2.1 goals per game. Defensively, Hoffenheim is more stable with 1.22 goals conceded per game, while Union Berlin is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.0 goals. Hoffenheim has seen both teams score in 12 of their matches, while for Union Berlin it was 11. Statistics for the PreZero Arena suggest high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Union Berlin has a slight edge with 3 wins compared to TSG Hoffenheim's 2. The goal difference is 9:7 in favor of Union Berlin. However, Hoffenheim won the last meeting 4-2.
Key Players
For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric is crucial with 6 season goals and 3 assists, as is Fisnik Asllani with 6 goals and 4 assists. Wouter Burger has also contributed with 4 goals and 6 assists. For Union Berlin, Ilyas Ansah is the top scorer with 5 season goals. Andrej Ilic stands out as a provider with 8 assists, while defender Danilho Doekhi has also scored 4 goals.
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeping duel is Oliver Baumann for Hoffenheim against Frederik Rönnow for Union Berlin. Both goalkeepers have kept 4 clean sheets so far this season.
Influences
The home advantage for Hoffenheim is statistically significant, with a strong record of 2.1 goals scored to 1.2 conceded per home game. The PreZero Arena is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.8 goals in recent games. On a grass surface, Hoffenheim has a strong home record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Union Berlin has a balanced away record.