Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart - SC Freiburg
02/01/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.3
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
25%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
44%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Matchup Advantage: Stuttgart's strong home offense (1.86 goals per game) meets Freiburg's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.62 goals conceded per game)
- Tactical Dominance: Stuttgart's possession-based style (56% possession) and high shot frequency (7.6 shots on target) are likely to control Freiburg's more reactive approach (3.4 shots on target)
- Offensive Form Trend: While Stuttgart scores consistently, Freiburg's goal production has recently dropped from 1.7 to 1.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Fatigue: Both teams have had only a three-day break since their last match, which could lead to errors
- Head-to-Head Anomaly: Although statistics favor Stuttgart, Freiburg won the last direct encounter, showing they can compete against this opponent
Overview
VfB Stuttgart, currently in 5th place with 36 points, hosts SC Freiburg, who are in 7th place with 27 points
The Bundesliga match will take place on February 1, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the MHPArena
Stuttgart aims to solidify their position for European competitions, while Freiburg looks to stay in touch with the top half of the table
Form
VfB Stuttgart: WDLWW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last five matches
SC Freiburg: LDWWL - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last five matches
Stuttgart is in slightly more stable form than the visitors from Freiburg
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart's offense averages 1.89 goals per game for the season, while Freiburg averages 1.63
Defensively, Stuttgart concedes an average of 1.37 goals, compared to Freiburg's 1.68
A key factor is Freiburg's away weakness, conceding an average of 2.62 goals per game on the road
Stuttgart's home strength is evident with 1.86 goals scored per home game
In 14 of Stuttgart's 19 season matches, there were over 2.5 goals, while this was the case in 13 of Freiburg's 19 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, VfB Stuttgart won 3 times, while SC Freiburg was successful twice
The goal difference is 14:7 in favor of Stuttgart
SC Freiburg won the last meeting 3-1
Key Players
Deniz Undav is VfB Stuttgart's top scorer with 11 season goals, supported by Jamie Leweling with 4 goals and 5 assists
For SC Freiburg, Vincenzo Grifo is the most dangerous player with 6 season goals
Igor Matanovic has contributed 5 season goals, while Yuito Suzuki has 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Alexander Nübel in goal for VfB Stuttgart has kept 7 clean sheets this season
SC Freiburg's Noah Atubolu has achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
The home advantage for Stuttgart is statistically significant, with an average of 1.86 goals scored per home game
At the MHPArena, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 80% of these games
Both teams are accustomed to a natural grass surface, which presents no particular advantage