Admiral Bundesliga
WSG Tirol - Sturm Graz
02/14/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
29%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Sturm Graz's strong away defense: Conceding only 0.75 goals per away game, Graz poses a significant challenge for Tirol's attack
- Contrasting form trends: Sturm Graz enters with two consecutive wins, while WSG Tirol has suffered three straight losses
- Historical H2H dominance: Although Tirol won the last game, Sturm Graz has won 4 of the last 5 encounters and is historically superior
Risk Factors
- Numerous absences for Sturm Graz: The visitors are missing several key players, leaving only about 68% of their usual goal threat available
- Psychological advantage for Tirol: The surprising 3-1 victory in the last direct duel could give the home team confidence to beat the favorite again
Overview
WSG Tirol (10th place, 21 points) hosts Sturm Graz (3rd place, 31 points) at Tivoli Stadion Tirol
Admiral Bundesliga match on February 14, 2026, 5:00 PM
The visitors from Graz aim to solidify their top position, while Tirol wants to increase the gap to the bottom half of the table
The mathematical analysis slightly favors Sturm Graz with a 42% probability of winning
Form
WSG Tirol's form across all competitions: DWLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The team is in a crisis, having lost their last three consecutive matches
Sturm Graz's form across all competitions: LLLWW (2 wins, 3 losses)
Graz has won their last two games, showing an upward trend
In the league, Tirol's form is WWDDL, while Sturm Graz's is WLWWL
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Sturm Graz is stronger offensively, averaging 1.56 goals per game compared to WSG Tirol's 1.33
Defensively, the visitors are also more stable, conceding only 1.28 goals per game (Tirol: 1.5)
Sturm Graz is particularly impressive away from home with a strong defense (only 0.75 goals conceded per game)
Both teams scored in 12 of Tirol's 18 season matches, while this was the case in 10 of Sturm Graz's games
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, Sturm Graz dominated with four wins to WSG Tirol's one
The goal difference is 11:5 in favor of Sturm Graz
However, WSG Tirol surprisingly won the last meeting 3-1 on December 3, 2025
Key Players
For WSG Tirol, Valentino MĂŒller is the top scorer with 8 season goals
N. Frederiksen (4 goals) and Moritz Wels (4 goals) are also key offensive players
For Sturm Graz, Otar Kiteishvili is the leading scorer with 8 season goals
Maurice Malone has contributed 3 goals so far this season
Goalkeepers
WSG Tirol's goalkeeper is Adam Stejskal, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Matteo Bignetti is in goal for Sturm Graz
The Sturm Graz team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times this season
Influences
Tivoli Stadion Tirol has recently seen high-scoring games, with an average of 3.0 goals in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games
WSG Tirol has a balanced home record (1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded)
Sturm Graz is extremely strong away, conceding an average of just 0.75 goals per game