Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK - Salzburg
02/15/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:0
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
30%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Offensive Superiority: Salzburg scores nearly twice as many goals on average (2.0) as Grazer AK (1.06), and is particularly potent away from home
- Contrasting League Form: Salzburg is unbeaten in its last five league games, while Grazer AK has been winless in the same period
- Historical Dominance: Salzburg is undefeated in the last five head-to-head encounters (3 wins, 2 draws) and won the last meeting convincingly 5-0
Risk Factors
- Significant Offensive Absences: Both teams are missing key attackers, leaving GAK with only 58% and Salzburg with only 61% of their usual goal-scoring threat, which could lead to a low-scoring game
- Salzburg's Dip in Form: The visitors have lost their last two competitive matches, indicating a short-term slump that GAK might exploit
- Low-Scoring Venue: The Merkur Arena has recently hosted low-scoring games (1.8 average), which could counteract the offensive strengths of both teams
Overview
Grazer AK, in 11th place with 16 points, hosts title contenders Salzburg, who are 2nd with 32 points
The Admiral Bundesliga match takes place on February 15, 2026, at 2:30 PM at the Merkur Arena
The roles are clearly defined, with the home team entering the match as the clear underdog
Form
Grazer AK's form from the last five games across all competitions is WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Salzburg's form is LWWLL (2 wins, 3 losses), with their last two games ending in defeat
In the league, however, the picture is different: Salzburg is unbeaten in five games (DWWWD), while Grazer AK is winless in their last five (DLDDL)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Salzburg has a significantly stronger offense, averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to Grazer AK's 1.06
Defensively, Salzburg is also more stable, conceding an average of only 1.28 goals per game, while GAK concedes 1.72
Salzburg remains very dangerous on the road, scoring 2.0 goals per away game
In 12 of 18 season matches for both teams, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Grazer AK has failed to secure a win
Salzburg won three of these matches, while two ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in Salzburg's favor at 10:3
The last meeting ended in a dominant 5-0 victory for Salzburg
Key Players
For Grazer AK, Daniel Maderner is the top scorer with 5 season goals
Tobias Koch has proven to be an important provider with 2 assists
For Salzburg, Kerim Alajbegovic is in outstanding form, having scored 6 goals this season
Edmund Baidoo has also contributed with 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Franz Stolz is in goal for Grazer AK, making his first appearance of the season; the team has kept 2 clean sheets so far
Alexander Schlager is Salzburg's first-choice goalkeeper with 17 appearances, helping his team to 4 clean sheets
Influences
Salzburg proves to be very strong on the road, averaging 2.0 goals per away game
Grazer AK's home record is rather mixed, with 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per game
Statistics from the Merkur Arena suggest a tendency for low-scoring games, with an average of just 1.8 goals in the last five matches