Admiral Bundesliga
Ried - LASK Linz
02/14/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- LASK's strong form: The visitors are unbeaten in five games (WWDWW) and show a positive form trend, while Ried has been inconsistent recently (LWWWL)
- Ried's historical H2H strength: Ried is unbeaten in the last five direct encounters (2 wins, 3 draws), which could provide a psychological advantage
- Clash of styles: LASK's recently potent offense (2.2 goals average in recent games) meets Ried's stable home defense (only 1.11 goals conceded per game at home)
Risk Factors
- LASK's away weakness: The Linz side concedes significantly more goals away (1.5 per game) than at home (0.9)
- Ried's inefficient offense: The home team recently averaged only 1.2 goals, despite their expected goals (xG) being 2.03
- Unpredictability due to H2H: Ried's clear dominance in recent direct duels makes a prediction based on pure league form risky
Overview
Ried (7th place, 26 points) host LASK Linz (2nd place, 32 points) at the josko ARENA
The Admiral Bundesliga match takes place on February 14, 2026, 5:00 PM
It's a clash between a mid-table team and a title contender who are level on points with the league leader
Form
Ried's form across all competitions is LWWWL (3 wins, 2 losses)
In contrast, LASK Linz is in excellent shape with a form of WWDWW (4 wins, 1 draw), and is unbeaten in five games
The mathematical analysis gives Ried a 40% win probability
Statistics
Offensively, the teams are almost level with 1.28 goals per game for Ried and 1.39 for LASK Linz
Defensively, LASK is slightly more stable with an average of 1.17 goals conceded per game compared to Ried's 1.33
However, LASK is more vulnerable away (1.5 goals conceded per game), while Ried concedes only 1.11 goals on average at home
Head-to-Head
Ried is unbeaten in the last 5 direct encounters
The home team won 2 matches, while 3 ended in a draw
LASK Linz has not won any of the last encounters
The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Ried, who won the last match 3:1 away
Key Players
All eyes are on Kingstone Mutandwa, who has already scored 8 goals this season
Ante Bajic is also an important factor with 2 goals and 2 assists
On the other side, Samuel Adeniran is the top scorer with 5 goals and 3 assists
The goal-scoring defender Kasper Jørgensen has also scored 4 goals this season
Goalkeepers
In goal, Andreas Leitner faces Lukas Jungwirth
Ried's Leitner has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Jungwirth of LASK Linz has managed this 7 times, indicating a slightly stronger season performance
Influences
The josko ARENA tends to see lower-scoring games, with an average of just 2.2 goals in recent matches
Ried's home defense is very solid, conceding only 1.11 goals per game
This contrasts with LASK Linz's defensive weakness away from home, where they concede an average of 1.5 goals