Bundesliga
Heidenheim - Hamburger SV
02/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
31%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Battle of vulnerable defenses: Heidenheim's general defensive weakness (2.25 goals conceded/game) meets HSV's catastrophic away record (4.5 goals conceded/game)
- Crisis versus resilience: Both teams are winless, but HSV has secured four draws, proving harder to beat than Heidenheim with three losses in five games
- Offensive hope for Heidenheim: The home team's attack shows a positive trend, scoring more frequently recently (1.2 goals/game) than their season average (0.95), which could be decisive against HSV's weak defense
Risk Factors
- Deceptive form of HSV: Although winless, HSV has drawn against top teams like Bayern Munich, indicating unexpected resilience
- Low goal threat: Both teams have a weak offense over the season with less than one goal per game on average, which could lead to a low-scoring game despite the defensive issues
Overview
A crucial duel in the Bundesliga relegation battle takes place at the Voith-Arena, where Heidenheim (18th place, 13 points) hosts Hamburger SV (13th place, 19 points). The match is scheduled for February 7, 2026, at 3:30 PM. For both teams, it's about vital points to avoid losing touch with the non-relegation spots.
Form
Both teams are in a form crisis and have been winless for five games.
Heidenheim: DLDLL - 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
Hamburger SV: DLDDD - 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss
HSV is proving hard to beat but mainly collects draws, while Heidenheim has lost more frequently recently.
Statistics
Offensively, both teams perform at a similar level, with about one goal per game each (Heidenheim 0.95, HSV 1.0). The defense is the key difference: Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.25 goals per game, while HSV concedes 1.53. Particularly striking is HSV's extreme away weakness, conceding an average of 4.5 goals in away stadiums. In 15 of Heidenheim's 20 matches, there were over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
So far, there has been only one encounter between these two clubs. Hamburger SV won that match 2-1. Consequently, HSV also leads the head-to-head goal difference 2-1.
Key Players
For Heidenheim, midfielder Julian Niehues is a beacon of hope with 3 goals in his recent games. Stefan Schimmer is the team's top scorer with 5 goals this season. For Hamburger SV, defender Luka Vuskovic is a key player with 4 season goals and strong recent form. Albert Sambi Lokonga has also scored 4 goals for the season, while FĂ bio Vieira has provided 3 assists.
Goalkeepers
In the goalkeeper comparison, Hamburger SV has a statistical advantage. Daniel Heuer Fernandes has kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches. Heidenheim's goalkeeper Diant Ramaj is yet to keep a clean sheet in 20 season appearances.
Influences
The Voith-Arena has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches. The decisive factor is likely to be Hamburger SV's extremely vulnerable away defense, which concedes an average of 4.5 goals per game. Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface, so no advantage arises from it.