Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - Werder Bremen
02/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
1.0
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
28%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
29%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Freiburg's massive home strength (only 0.92 goals conceded per game) meets Bremen's blatant away weakness (2.22 goals conceded per game)
- Werder Bremen is winless in five games (LDLLD) and is in a clear form crisis
- The historical record clearly favors Freiburg, who have won 4 of the last 5 direct duels with a goal difference of 11:3
Risk Factors
- Despite being the favorite, Freiburg has lost its last two games (form 'DWWLL'), which could indicate a potential dip in performance
- Bremen is a possession-dominant team (58% on average). If they can control the game, they might neutralize Freiburg's home advantage
Overview
SC Freiburg (7th place, 27 points) hosts Werder Bremen (15th place, 19 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on February 7, 2026, at 3:30 PM. Freiburg aims to solidify their position in the upper mid-table, while Bremen is fighting for crucial points against relegation.
Form
SC Freiburg: DWWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Werder Bremen: LDLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Freiburg's form is mixed but significantly better than Bremen's, who are winless in their last five games.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Offensively, Freiburg is superior with a season average of 1.55 goals per game compared to Bremen's 1.1. Defensively, the picture is similar: Freiburg concedes 1.65 goals per game, while Bremen concedes 1.9. Freiburg's home strength (0.92 goals conceded on average) versus Bremen's away weakness (2.22 goals conceded on average) is particularly striking.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, SC Freiburg has dominated with 4 wins to Werder Bremen's 1. The goal difference is clearly in Freiburg's favor at 11:3. Freiburg won the last meeting 3:0.
Key Players
For Freiburg, Vincenzo Grifo (6 season goals) and Igor Matanovic (5 season goals) are the most dangerous players. Yuito Suzuki has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists.
For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage is the top scorer with 6 goals. Romano Schmid is the most important playmaker with 5 assists.
Goalkeepers
Freiburg's goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has kept 4 clean sheets in 20 season appearances. Werder Bremen's Mio Backhaus also has 4 clean sheets from 18 matches.
Influences
Freiburg's home advantage is statistically clear, especially defensively with only 0.92 goals conceded per home game. Bremen has not won an away game on grass yet (0 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses). At the Europa-Park Stadion, there's an average of 2.0 goals per game, and both teams scored in 60% of the matches.