Bundesliga
St. Pauli - VfB Stuttgart
02/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
3.0
1.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
25%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Difference in class: Fourth-placed Stuttgart meets relegation-threatened seventeenth-placed St. Pauli
- Contrasting form: Stuttgart arrives with three consecutive wins, while St. Pauli is winless in five games
- Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Stuttgart's strong away attack (1.92 goals/game) faces St. Pauli's vulnerable home defense (1.6 goals conceded/game)
- Numerous absences for St. Pauli: The home team has to do without several key players, which further weakens the squad
Risk Factors
- Stuttgart's slight dip in form: Despite the wins, their recent goal production (1.6 goals/game) is slightly below their season average (1.9)
- Low-scoring venue: The Millerntor-Stadion historically sees few goals (only 40% of matches over 2.5 goals), which could hinder Stuttgart's offense
- Uncertainty around St. Pauli: The high number of injuries makes it difficult to assess the home team's actual performance capability
Overview
St. Pauli, in 17th place with 14 points, hosts VfB Stuttgart, who are 4th with 39 points
The Bundesliga match takes place on February 7, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the Millerntor-Stadion
This is a clear clash between a relegation candidate and a team fighting for European spots
Form
St. Pauli form: LLDDL
In the last 5 matches, there were 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
VfB Stuttgart form: DLWWW
They have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, including a 3-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, VfB Stuttgart averages 1.85 goals per game, whereas St. Pauli scores only 0.9
Defensively, Stuttgart is more stable, conceding an average of 1.3 goals, while St. Pauli concedes 1.7
At home, St. Pauli scores an average of 0.9 goals and concedes 1.6
Stuttgart is very strong away, with a scoring average of 1.92 goals while conceding only 1.25 per game
The Millerntor-Stadion sees an average of only 2.0 goals per game, and only 40% of matches have ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 5 previous head-to-head encounters, St. Pauli won 1 time, while VfB Stuttgart won 4 times
There have been no draws between the two teams
The goal difference is clearly in Stuttgart's favor at 7:2
The last meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Stuttgart
Key Players
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani is a key player with 3 season goals and 2 assists
Martijn Kaars has also scored 3 goals
For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav is the top scorer with 11 goals and 3 assists
Jamie Leweling has contributed 4 goals and 5 assists, while Angelo Stiller shines with 5 assists
Goalkeepers
St. Pauli's goalkeeper is Nikola Vasilj; his team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Alexander Nübel is in goal for VfB Stuttgart, who have kept 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
The statistics of the Millerntor-Stadion, with an average of 2.0 goals per game, suggest a tendency for low-scoring matches
St. Pauli's record on natural grass is weak, with only one win in 10 games
VfB Stuttgart, on the other hand, has a strong record on natural grass with 7 wins in 10 games