Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund
02/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
38%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
62%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Difference in class: Second-placed Dortmund faces the team in 14th, a gap reflected in all season statistics
- Defensive vulnerability: Wolfsburg's defense concedes over 2 goals per game on average, while Dortmund has one of the league's strongest defenses
- Historical dominance: Dortmund has clearly dominated recent encounters and enters the match with a psychological advantage
Risk Factors
- High-scoring venue: The Volkswagen Arena has seen many goals recently (4.0 on average), which could lead to unpredictable results
- Slight downward trend for Dortmund: Dortmund's recent goal tally is slightly below their season average, which could indicate a minor dip in form
- Extensive injury list for Wolfsburg: Although the core goal threat is available, the many absences could affect team chemistry and defensive stability
Overview
In the Bundesliga, VfL Wolfsburg (14th place, 19 points) hosts Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 45 points)
The match takes place on February 7, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the Volkswagen Arena
Wolfsburg is fighting for crucial points against relegation, while Dortmund aims to stay close to the top of the table
Form
VfL Wolfsburg: LWDLL - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from the last five league matches
Borussia Dortmund: WLWLW - 4 wins, 1 draw from the last five league matches
The form curve clearly favors the visitors
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Dortmund is clearly superior with an average of 2.05 goals per game (Wolfsburg 1.4)
A similar picture emerges defensively: Dortmund concedes only 0.95 goals per game, whereas Wolfsburg concedes 2.1
Wolfsburg is particularly vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.91 goals per game
Wolfsburg has kept only one clean sheet in 20 league games this season, and none at home
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins and one draw
The goal difference of 10:2 in favor of Dortmund highlights their superiority
The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund is considered historically dominant
Key Players
Mohamed Amoura is Wolfsburg's top scorer with 7 season goals
Dzenan Pejcinovic has scored 5 goals, while Christian Eriksen shines with 4 assists
For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy is the most successful striker with 8 goals
Maximilian Beier has 6 goals, and Julian Brandt has scored 5 times
Goalkeepers
VfL Wolfsburg's Kamil Grabara has kept one clean sheet in 20 season appearances
Borussia Dortmund's Gregor Kobel has already managed 10 clean sheets in 20 matches
Influences
The Volkswagen Arena has recently been the scene of high-scoring games, with an average of 4.0 goals per match
In Wolfsburg's last 5 home games, both teams have always scored
Wolfsburg has a negative home record on natural grass this season (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses)
Dortmund has a strong away record on the same surface (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)