Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - FSV Mainz 05
02/13/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:0
9%0:0
8%2:0
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
28%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Dortmund's dominance in their own stadium (avg. 2.0 goals, 0.73 conceded) meets Mainz's defensive vulnerability on the road (avg. 1.82 conceded)
- Gap in season quality: The massive difference in the table (2nd vs. 14th) and points (48 vs. 21) reflects BVB's higher consistency throughout the season
- Offensive superiority: Statistically, Dortmund has a significantly more potent attack with 2.05 goals per game compared to Mainz's 1.19
Risk Factors
- Massive offensive weakening: Dortmund has to do without key players, meaning only 49% of their usual goal threat is on the pitch, according to analysis. Specifically, Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi are missing
- In-form visitors: Mainz arrives with the confidence of 4 wins from their last 5 games and is in better current form than BVB
- Defensive gap: The absence of suspended defensive leader Nico Schlotterbeck could significantly weaken Dortmund's defense
Overview
Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 48 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (14th place, 21 points) at Signal Iduna Park
Bundesliga match on February 13, 2026, 8:30 PM
Dortmund enter the match as favorites, looking to keep pace with the league leaders
The mathematical analysis supports this with a 45% win probability for the home team
Form
The current form surprisingly favors the visitors
Borussia Dortmund's form from the last five competitive matches is LWLWW (3 wins, 2 losses)
FSV Mainz 05 arrives with a strong form of WLWWW, which translates to 4 wins and one loss, including a three-game winning streak
In the league, however, Dortmund's form is very strong at DWWWW
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Statistically, Dortmund is superior in almost all areas
BVB's offense scores an average of 2.05 goals per game, while Mainz averages 1.19
Defensively, Dortmund concedes only 0.95 goals per game, compared to Mainz's 1.57
Dortmund is particularly dominant at Signal Iduna Park (averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded)
Mainz is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 1.82 goals
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record of the last five encounters is perfectly balanced
Both Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 have won two matches each, with one game ending in a draw
The goal difference is also very close at 7:8 from Dortmund's perspective
The last duel was won 2-0 by Dortmund away from home
Key Players
For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy with 9 season goals and Maximilian Beier with 6 goals are the most dangerous attackers
Julian Ryerson has already contributed 7 assists
For FSV Mainz 05, Nadiem Amiri is the standout offensive player with 9 goals
Jae-sung Lee has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Daniel Batz will be in goal for Mainz
The team has managed 2 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
Signal Iduna Park is a stronghold of attacking football
In the last five home games, there has been an average of 3.4 goals per match
In 60% of these games, the 2.5 goals mark was exceeded
Dortmund's home strength is statistically proven with an average of 2.0 goals scored to only 0.73 conceded per game