Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - St. Pauli
02/14/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.7
0.7
2:0
13%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
9%3:1
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
23%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Strong home record vs. weak away record: Leverkusen averages 2.0 goals at home, while St. Pauli concedes 2.0 goals away
- Decimated offense for St. Pauli: Due to the absence of key players like Andrès Hountondji, only 55% of the team's usual goal threat is available
- Clear mathematical forecast: The prediction models show a high home win probability of 66% and expect 1.99 goals for Leverkusen compared to just 0.74 for the visitors
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent league form for Leverkusen: Despite being favorites, their league form (LDWDW) does not show recent dominance
- Upward trend for St. Pauli: The visitors have been scoring more frequently recently than their season average, and could cause an upset
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 36 points) host St. Pauli (17th place, 17 points) at the BayArena
Bundesliga match on February 14, 2026, 3:30 PM
Leverkusen is fighting for European qualification, while St. Pauli is in a relegation battle
Form
Leverkusen's form across all competitions is LWWWD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
In the league, their form is LDWDW
St. Pauli's form across all competitions is LDDLW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
St. Pauli's league form is DWWLL, suggesting a recently better phase that was marred by two losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Leverkusen is strong offensively at home, averaging 2.0 goals per game while conceding only 1.0
St. Pauli struggles away, scoring an average of 1.0 goal but conceding 2.0
Both teams scored in 12 of Leverkusen's 20 matches
St. Pauli failed to score in 8 of their 21 league matches this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has a dominant record
Leverkusen won 4 of these games, with one draw and no losses
The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Leverkusen
The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for the home team
Key Players
Alejandro Grimaldo is a crucial player for Leverkusen with 5 season goals and 5 assists
Forward Patrik Schick has already scored 6 goals
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani is the most dangerous player with 4 goals and 2 assists
Martijn Kaars has contributed 3 season goals
Goalkeepers
Janis Blaswich is in goal for Leverkusen and has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Nikola Vasilj is St. Pauli's goalkeeper and has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
The BayArena is a high-scoring venue, with an average of 3.0 goals in the last 5 games
Leverkusen shows a strong home record with 2.0 goals scored per game
St. Pauli is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game