Superliga
Fredericia - AGF
02/15/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.3
2.2
1:1
10%1:2
10%0:2
9%1:3
7%0:3
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
18%
Draw
22%
Away Win
60%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
40%
Away or Draw
82%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Difference in class and form: League leaders AGF on a four-game winning streak face relegation-battling Fredericia with inconsistent form
- Defensive mismatch: Fredericia's extremely vulnerable defense (3.33 goals conceded per home game) is up against AGF's potent attack (2.0 goals per game)
- Statistical dominance: The models favor an away win with a 60% probability and predict 2.19 goals for AGF, reflecting their clear superiority
Risk Factors
- Limited historical data: With only a single head-to-head match on record, it is difficult to derive reliable historical patterns
- Risk of complacency: As overwhelming favorites, AGF could underestimate their opponents, who are fighting for survival
- Last-match momentum: Fredericia comes into this game after a 3-2 victory, which could give them a psychological boost
Overview
At Monjasa Park, Fredericia, 11th in the table with 17 points, hosts league leaders AGF, who have 43 points
The Superliga match takes place on February 15, 2026, at 2:00 PM
This is a classic top-versus-bottom clash with clearly defined roles
Form
Fredericia's form (all competitions): LLWLW
They have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, indicating inconsistent performance
AGF's form (all competitions): LWWWW
The visitors are in outstanding form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and arrive on a 4-game winning streak
The form curve clearly favors AGF
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
AGF has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to Fredericia's 1.32
The biggest difference is in defense: Fredericia concedes an average of 2.42 goals, and a catastrophic 3.33 per game at home
AGF, on the other hand, is very stable defensively with only 1.0 goal conceded per game
Fredericia has kept only 2 clean sheets, while AGF has managed 6
In Fredericia's matches, there have been more than 2.5 goals in 14 out of 19 cases
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between the two teams so far
AGF won this duel decisively
The match ended 4-1 in favor of AGF
Due to the limited amount of data, the historical significance is limited
Key Players
For Fredericia, Oscar Buch is the most prolific player with 6 goals this season
AGF has a more distributed goal threat in their attack
Tobias Bech is the top scorer with 10 goals
Patrick Mortensen has scored 7 goals this season
Kristian Arnstad has 6 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Fredericia's goalkeeper is Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
Jesper Hansen in goal for AGF has a much better record
His team has already kept a clean sheet 6 times
Influences
Matches at Monjasa Park tend to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game
Fredericia has an extremely weak home record, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per home match
AGF, in contrast, is very strong away, scoring an average of 2.1 goals per away game
The combination of Fredericia's home weakness and AGF's away strength is a decisive factor