Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - VfL Wolfsburg
02/15/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
23%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Serious personnel issues for Wolfsburg: Only 52% of their seasonal goal threat is available, with key players like Patrick Wimmer and Dzenan Pejcinovic missing
- Defensive vulnerability of the guests: Wolfsburg's defense concedes an average of 2.33 goals away from home and faces Leipzig's potent home attack (1.92 goals per game)
- Stark form contrast: Wolfsburg has lost their last three matches, while Leipzig is in a much more stable condition
Risk Factors
- Leipzig's attack weakened: With David Raum and Assan Ouédraogo, key players are missing, leaving only 65% of their goal threat available
- Inconsistent home performance: Leipzig has lost two of their last five matches, including their last two home games in the league
- Stuttering goal production: Leipzig's recent goal average of 1.6 is below their season average of 2.0, indicating a drop in efficiency
Overview
RB Leipzig (6th place, 39 points) hosts VfL Wolfsburg (15th place, 19 points) at the Red Bull Arena
Bundesliga match on February 15, 2026, 5:30 PM
Leipzig is competing for European spots, while Wolfsburg is in a relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 61% probability of winning
Form
RB Leipzig form: LWDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)
VfL Wolfsburg form: WDLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 matches)
Wolfsburg is in a form crisis, having lost their last three consecutive games
Leipzig's form is inconsistent but they won their most recent match
Statistics
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.9 goals per game, and 1.92 at home
Leipzig's defense concedes only 1.08 goals per game at home
VfL Wolfsburg has one of the weakest defenses in the league, conceding 2.1 goals per game, which rises to 2.33 away
In games involving Wolfsburg, both teams scored in 16 out of 21 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, there were 3 wins for RB Leipzig and 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg
The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 9:9
RB Leipzig won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
Christoph Baumgartner is Leipzig's top scorer with 8 goals and 7 assists, and recently showed strong form with two goals
Yan Diomande is a consistent presence in Leipzig's attack with 7 season goals and 4 assists
For Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura is the most dangerous attacker with 7 season goals
Christian Eriksen and Maximilian Arnold are the creative minds in the guests' midfield, each with 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Leipzig's PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Wolfsburg's Kamil Grabara has managed this in only one match
The statistics clearly favor the home team's goalkeeper
Influences
RB Leipzig is very strong at home, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per game while conceding only 1.08
Matches at the Red Bull Arena are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals in recent games
In 3 of the last 5 home matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals