Superliga
AGF - Viborg FF
02/22/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
29%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Viborg's weakened offense: Due to the absence of players like Tim Freriks and suspensions for S. Kuzmic (3 goals) and J. Mbom (4 assists), only 45% of the season's goal contributions are available
- AGF's dominant home strength: As league leaders, AGF are particularly strong in their own stadium, conceding less than one goal per game on average (0.89)
- Clear initial situation: The unbeaten league leaders host a weakened, albeit in-form, mid-table team
Risk Factors
- Viborg's recent offensive surge: Despite the absences, Viborg has recently increased its scoring rate to 2.4 goals per game, well above the season average of 1.7
- Balanced win probabilities: The mathematical model does not predict a clear outcome, with a win probability of 39% for AGF, 32% for Viborg, and 29% for a draw
Overview
AGF (1st place, 44 points) host Viborg FF (6th place, 30 points) at Vejlby Stadion
A top match in the Superliga on February 22, 2026, at 6:00 PM
AGF aims to extend their league lead, while Viborg wants to stay in touch with the top spots
Form
Both teams are in outstanding form and are unbeaten in their last five matches
AGF's form: WWWWD (4 wins, 1 draw)
Viborg FF's form: WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
AGF has a stronger attack with 1.95 goals per game compared to Viborg's 1.65
Defensively, the league leaders are also more stable, conceding only 1.0 goal per game compared to Viborg's 1.45
AGF is particularly strong defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.89 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, AGF has a slight edge with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of AGF
The last meeting was won 2-1 by AGF away from home
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper matchup features Jesper Hansen for AGF and Lucas Lund for Viborg FF
Both have kept 6 clean sheets this season
Their season ratings are nearly identical at 6.94 (Hansen) and 6.92 (Lund)
Influences
The home advantage for AGF is statistically significant, with an average of 1.89 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded at Vejlby Stadion
The last five home games have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game