Superliga
Randers FC - Fredericia
02/22/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
6%3:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
25%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Defensive Disparity: Fredericia's extremely vulnerable defense (averaging 2.35 goals conceded per game) is in stark contrast to Randers FC's more solid backline (1.2 goals conceded per game)
- Home Advantage vs. Away Weakness: Randers FC is more stable at home, while Fredericia has significant defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 2.0 goals
- Model's Prediction: Despite their own offensive struggles, Randers FC is clearly favored by the mathematical model, with a 55% win probability and 1.88 expected goals
Risk Factors
- Randers' Attacking Weakness: The home team has one of the weakest offenses in the league with only 0.95 goals per game and failed to score in 8 of 20 matches
- Fredericia's Away Threat: The visitors score an average of 1.31 goals per away game, which is higher than the host's overall average
- Head-to-Head History: The only previous encounter was won by Fredericia, which could give them a psychological advantage
Overview
Randers FC (9th place, 23 points) hosts Fredericia (11th place, 18 points) at Cepheus Park Randers in the Superliga on February 22, 2026, 2:00 PM
This is a clash from the lower half of the table, with the home team considered the favorite
The mathematical analysis gives Randers FC a 55% probability of winning
Form
Randers FC Form (All competitions): DDLDW
In the last five games, there has been one win, three draws, and one loss
Their last appearance ended in a 2-0 victory against Vejle Boldklub
Fredericia Form (All competitions): LWLWD
The record from the last five matches shows two wins, one draw, and two losses
They last drew 1-1 against AGF
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Fredericia has a slight edge, averaging 1.3 goals per game compared to Randers FC's 0.95
Defensively, Randers FC is significantly more stable, conceding an average of only 1.2 goals, while Fredericia concedes 2.35 goals per game
Fredericia's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home (2.0 goals conceded per game)
Matches involving Fredericia tend to be high-scoring, with 14 of their 20 games ending with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
So far, there has been only one direct encounter between the two teams
Fredericia won this single duel 1-0
In this match, Fredericia scored one goal, while Randers FC remained goalless
Key Players
For Randers FC, Daniel Høegh (3 season goals), Elies Mahmoud (2 goals, 1 assist), and the consistently rated defender Wessel Dammers could play a key role
For Fredericia, midfielder Felix Winther (1 goal, 1 assist) and defender Jakob Jessen (2 assists) are important players
Goalkeepers
Randers FC's Paul Izzo has shown a solid performance in 15 appearances this season, contributing to his team's 8 clean sheets
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen, Fredericia's expected goalkeeper, has played in 2 matches, with his team keeping only 2 clean sheets in total this season
Influences
Randers FC's home advantage is amplified by Fredericia's weak away defense (2.0 goals conceded per game)
The venue, Cepheus Park Randers, has recently been rather low-scoring, with an average of just 1.4 goals in the last five games
In only one of these five home matches did both teams score