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Superliga

Sønderjyske Fodbold - Odense BK

03/01/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sønderjyske Fodbold
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Odense BK
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SFOB

Sønderjyske Fodbold

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.10
K. Ingason not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
M. Agger not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Odense BK

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.06
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Defensive Disparity: Odense's extremely weak away defense (2.33 goals conceded per game) meets a defensively stable Sønderjyske home team (1.00 goals conceded per game)
  • Offensive Firepower: Odense boasts a strong attack with Noah Ganaus (10 goals) and Fiete Arp (8 goals), facing a counter-oriented but efficient home side
  • High-Scoring Venue: Sydbank Park averages 3.2 goals per game, which favors an open match and could further expose Odense's vulnerable defense
Risk Factors
  • H2H Record: Odense BK is unbeaten in the last five meetings with Sønderjyske (1 win, 4 draws), which contradicts the current league standings
  • Key Midfield Absences: Both teams are missing key players in the center, Sønderjyske without the suspended T. Sommer (20 appearances) and Odense without R. Falk Jensen
Overview

Sønderjyske Fodbold (4th place, 33 points) hosts Odense BK (8th place, 27 points) at Sydbank Park

The Superliga match takes place on March 1, 2026, 5:00 PM

The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced match, with a 36% win probability for the home team and 36% for the visitors

Form

Sønderjyske Fodbold form: D-W-L-W-D

In the last 5 games, there were 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The team is unbeaten in two games and last drew 0-0 against Brøndby IF

Odense BK form: W-W-L-L-D

Odense BK secured 2 wins and 1 draw with 2 losses in their last 5 matches

They last drew 2-2 against FC København, following two consecutive losses

Statistics

Sønderjyske Fodbold is strong at home, averaging 1.64 goals scored and only 1.00 goals conceded per home game

Odense BK has one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league, especially away with 2.33 goals conceded per game

However, Odense's attack is very dangerous, with 1.71 goals per game overall and 1.78 away

Both teams scored in 18 of Odense BK's 21 season games, indicating high-scoring matches

Head-to-Head

Sønderjyske Fodbold has not won in the last 5 direct encounters

Odense BK won once, while 4 matches ended in a draw

The last meeting finished with a 1-1 score

In total, 15 goals were scored in these matches, with a slight advantage for Odense (8 to 7)

Key Players

For Sønderjyske Fodbold, Lirim Qamili (5 season goals) and defender M. Soulas (3 goals) are key offensive contributors

Odense BK relies on its striker duo Noah Ganaus, who stands out with 10 goals this season, and Fiete Arp with 8 goals

Goalkeepers

Sønderjyske's goalkeeper Marcus Bundgaard has kept 6 clean sheets this season

In contrast, Viljar Myhra of Odense BK has managed to keep a clean sheet in only 2 matches

Influences

Sydbank Park is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches

In all 5 of these games, there were over 2.5 goals, and in 4 of them, both teams scored

Sønderjyske's home strength (1.0 conceded per game) meets Odense's massive defensive weakness away (2.33 conceded per game)

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