Superliga
Sønderjyske Fodbold - Odense BK
03/01/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Odense BK
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
28%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Defensive Disparity: Odense's extremely weak away defense (2.33 goals conceded per game) meets a defensively stable Sønderjyske home team (1.00 goals conceded per game)
- Offensive Firepower: Odense boasts a strong attack with Noah Ganaus (10 goals) and Fiete Arp (8 goals), facing a counter-oriented but efficient home side
- High-Scoring Venue: Sydbank Park averages 3.2 goals per game, which favors an open match and could further expose Odense's vulnerable defense
Risk Factors
- H2H Record: Odense BK is unbeaten in the last five meetings with Sønderjyske (1 win, 4 draws), which contradicts the current league standings
- Key Midfield Absences: Both teams are missing key players in the center, Sønderjyske without the suspended T. Sommer (20 appearances) and Odense without R. Falk Jensen
Overview
Sønderjyske Fodbold (4th place, 33 points) hosts Odense BK (8th place, 27 points) at Sydbank Park
The Superliga match takes place on March 1, 2026, 5:00 PM
The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced match, with a 36% win probability for the home team and 36% for the visitors
Form
Sønderjyske Fodbold form: D-W-L-W-D
In the last 5 games, there were 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The team is unbeaten in two games and last drew 0-0 against Brøndby IF
Odense BK form: W-W-L-L-D
Odense BK secured 2 wins and 1 draw with 2 losses in their last 5 matches
They last drew 2-2 against FC København, following two consecutive losses
Statistics
Sønderjyske Fodbold is strong at home, averaging 1.64 goals scored and only 1.00 goals conceded per home game
Odense BK has one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league, especially away with 2.33 goals conceded per game
However, Odense's attack is very dangerous, with 1.71 goals per game overall and 1.78 away
Both teams scored in 18 of Odense BK's 21 season games, indicating high-scoring matches
Head-to-Head
Sønderjyske Fodbold has not won in the last 5 direct encounters
Odense BK won once, while 4 matches ended in a draw
The last meeting finished with a 1-1 score
In total, 15 goals were scored in these matches, with a slight advantage for Odense (8 to 7)
Key Players
For Sønderjyske Fodbold, Lirim Qamili (5 season goals) and defender M. Soulas (3 goals) are key offensive contributors
Odense BK relies on its striker duo Noah Ganaus, who stands out with 10 goals this season, and Fiete Arp with 8 goals
Goalkeepers
Sønderjyske's goalkeeper Marcus Bundgaard has kept 6 clean sheets this season
In contrast, Viljar Myhra of Odense BK has managed to keep a clean sheet in only 2 matches
Influences
Sydbank Park is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches
In all 5 of these games, there were over 2.5 goals, and in 4 of them, both teams scored
Sønderjyske's home strength (1.0 conceded per game) meets Odense's massive defensive weakness away (2.33 conceded per game)