Bundesliga
FC Augsburg - Heidenheim
02/15/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%0:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Drastic difference in form: Augsburg has been relatively stable over the last five games (2W, 2D, 1L), while Heidenheim is in a deep crisis with four losses
- Heidenheim's defensive vulnerability: With 47 goals conceded, Heidenheim has the weakest defense in the league, especially away (2.3 goals conceded per game)
- Home advantage for Augsburg: Augsburg performs more solidly at home, whereas Heidenheim's away record is extremely poor, supporting the 41% win probability for the home team
Risk Factors
- Reduced goal threat for Augsburg: An important player, Fabian Rieder (3 goals, 2 assists), is missing, leaving only 58% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Augsburg's defensive weaknesses: Augsburg is also defensively vulnerable with 1.86 goals conceded per game, which could give Heidenheim opportunities
- Heidenheim's offensive impotence: Only 53% of Heidenheim's goal threat is available in the squad for the match, severely limiting their ability to score
Overview
In the Bundesliga relegation battle, FC Augsburg (13th place, 22 points) hosts bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim (18th place, 13 points)
The match will take place on February 15, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the WWK Arena
Augsburg aims to increase the gap to the relegation zone, while Heidenheim desperately needs points to stay in the league
Form
FC Augsburg is in solid form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only one loss from their last five matches (Form: DDWWL)
However, their most recent game was a 0-2 loss to FSV Mainz 05
Heidenheim is in a major crisis with four losses in their last five games (Form: LDLLL)
The team has lost their last three consecutive matches
Statistics
Augsburg scores an average of 1.14 goals per game, while Heidenheim is weaker offensively with 0.9 goals
The defense is the biggest weakness for both teams, especially for Heidenheim, who have the worst defense in the league with 47 goals conceded (avg 2.24 per game)
Augsburg concedes an average of 1.86 goals
Heidenheim is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the 5 previous head-to-head encounters, FC Augsburg has the edge with 3 wins, while Heidenheim has won 2 matches
There have been no draws so far
The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 9:9
The last meeting was won by Heidenheim with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Augsburg, Alexis Claude-Maurice (2 goals, 2 assists in the last 5 games) and Michael Gregoritsch (2 goals in his last 4 appearances) are in good form
Han-Noah Massengo provides stability in midfield and also scored recently
For Heidenheim, forward Stefan Schimmer is the most dangerous player with 5 seasonal goals, despite often coming off the bench
Julian Niehues has also been a goal threat with 2 goals in recent games
Goalkeepers
Augsburg's goalkeeper Finn Dahmen has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Heidenheim's keeper Diant Ramaj, on the other hand, is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season
Influences
At the WWK Arena, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game, suggesting rather low-scoring matches
Augsburg is relatively stable at home, scoring an average of 1.17 goals per game
Heidenheim's massive away weakness is a decisive factor; the team concedes 2.3 goals per game on the road